Calling Mr. Yellen

The fundamentals of project management provide that any project manager worth a shit- is far too intelligent to take over a half completed project that is already vastly over budget. Those things don't make your project resume' sparkle. Please think of the Federal Reserve's QE programs as a project- because I think the analogy is accurate.

Several of the commenters on the Zero Hedge comment boards like to refer to Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen as "Mr. Yellen."

I'm not sure what the genesis of that was precisely, however, I strongly suspect it has something to do with her not so appealing looks- some folks have even said that when Janet enters any bank- they turn off the surveillance cameras just to be on the safe side.

Mr. Yellen's husband is George Akerlof. I spent this morning reading some of Akerlof's papers and thus opinion pieces- trying to get an accurate read on the collective Yellen thought process. Akerlof claims to be on the staff at the University of California Berkeley but that's not entirely true. Not only is he a liberal economist/banker/keynesian shill but he is a full fledged researcher working for the International Monetary Fund. Oh goody.

I'd like to draw your attention to this chart posted on the Economic Policy Journal which was produced by the BLS. This is a chart comparing various items and their inflated or deflated prices over the last 5 years.





Whenever I see charts such as this, I always wonder why the author selected the items that he/she selected for inclusion on the chart. Missing are things like tax rates, health care costs, and college tuition. Costs that virtually all of us incur- which are far more damaging and reoccurring- than buying a box of Lego blocks for your nephew at Christmas.

So please focus on this chart for a minute. What I'm about to do is make a real world apples to apples comparison. I am acutely aware of my spending habits- mostly because I do the spending and I consider my spending habits to be fairly representative of most folks. To be on the simplistic and fair side, please remember that I am only counting myself- not a wife, kids, or family.

For those of you who hate math and calculations, you may skip down to the bottom line and  find this*.

First I shall calculate my savings via the deflated right side of this chart over the last 5 years.

Toys- 0. I have purchased one laptop for 400.00 and a few other components for 200.00 My savings using the above chart have been 216.00 dollars. My girlfriend and I bought a 60" TV for Christmas that cost 600.00 My older TV cost 800.00 in 2010. So collectively speaking, I have saved about 900.00 bucks on television sets in 5 years.

According to the BLS then, I have saved 1116.00 over the last 5 years on those purchases.

Now let's try the left side of this bar chart.

I drive 15,000 miles per yr. (conservative est., I also have a motorcycle) The Elantra gets 30 MPG combined. So does the bike. That's 500 gallons of gas per year multiplied by 5 years. Let's say the current cost of gasoline is 3.50 a gal. So I spend 1750.00 per yr on gas. Therefore, I have lost about 1300 dollars per yr filling up my tanks since 2009. Total aggregate loss in buying power is 6,500.00.

I eat a lot of ground beef, sirloin. I am going to say  2 lbs. a week. I will use the current price and round it to 4.00 a pound. So I spend 8.00 a week or 416.00 per year on ground beef. Multiplied over 5 years that cost becomes 2100.00 or so. (remember as costs increase- so do sales taxes) Total aggregate loss here is about 750.00.

Auto insurance costs me 1000.00 a year for the car and bike. That is 5000.00 over 5 years. Using their 23% inflation handle means I have lost an additional 1150.00 since 2009.

* So I have saved 1116.00 dollars on deflating items. I have lost 8400.00 on inflating items. Therefore I have a net loss over the last 5 years of 7284.00 on just the items this simple chart depicts.

That loss is HUGE particularly over that short of a time frame.

Now I want you to note that in the middle of this bar chart, the BLS has stated that Consumer Price Inflation or CPI over this period of time (09-14) was 11% or about 2.2% per year. Of course that is complete bullshit as I have proven here. In fact, I have suffered a 5% rate of inflation just on the items they selected. That does not count toilet paper, health insurance, cost of housing, utilities, taxes- all those things that I cannot avoid, items and prices that have been rising in dramatic fashion.

In order to avoid the great deflationary event which should have unfolded in 2009, the unelected masters of the universe- Bernanke and Yellen- have embarked on a 4 trillion dollar stimulus project that has caused the prices of virtually everything to rise, except for a couple of novelty items produced by the Chinese.

This egregious market distortion and it's ill effects are going to unfold in dramatic fashion as all QE programs are halted OR plan (B) they kick the can some more by installing new QE plans and trying to dump the smoldering ruins onto some other sap.

Either way, I wouldn't want to be Mr. Yellen or her husband. They were left with an unfinished and wildly over budget project (without precedent!) that is going to cause a serious shit storm in the years to come- because there are only two ways out (deflation or hyperinflation) and both ways suck. 

Wouldn't you love to know how much gold Ben Bernanke personally owns? I'll bet it can be measured in pounds.

How To Financially Survive the American Health Care Disaster

This piece is predicated on two things. That you have some disposable income and that you currently do not have health insurance.(and know this- many of you will soon lose it.)

In 2007, I was able to retire early at the ripe old age of 46. It had always been a dream of mine not to spend my entire life toiling away for someone else. In the America of my dreams- life planning, hard work, discipline, determination, denying myself big ticket purchases, and saving- might allow me to pull that off. My American dream was contingent on freedom and the expectation that government or anyone else for that matter, would not be allowed to steal my money.

I'm not talking about an opulent life. I am talking about being able to afford a decent house, a new car, and enough money to travel when I want. Those things are attainable- but you have to live frugally. Frugally does not include paying 500 a month for health insurance coupled with an annual 2000 dollar deductible. That rounds out to something like 700 dollars a month or roughly- what I pay for my current mortgage.

In other words, I did not live my life saving every penny that I could just to turn around and piss it all away because some imperial President and his left wing puppets think they should be allowed to seize my money and redistribute it. There were no reforms, no spending caps, no cost caps. There was no due diligence. Obamacare stands as the worst law of my lifetime. It is the absolute antithesis of freedom. That the Supreme Court allowed this sham to stand is proof positive that we no longer have a Republic- we have a mob run democracy.

Health care costs were already out of control and barely affordable in the early 2000's after Rubin, Congress, and Clinton removed Glass-Steagall in 1999. With the help of a complicit and co-opted Congress, bankers were able to destroy what was left of our economy with the worst lending and accounting standards ever conceived. I use destroy in the past tense- because there have been zero reforms since the 2008 collapse. After the collapse of 2008, healthy and young people lost jobs and healthcare by the millions. I was one of them. Instead of stepping up and punishing those responsible- this government of theirs because it's surely not a government of ours- decided that innocent folks like myself needed some additional financial screwing to help keep the insurance and health care industry afloat.

This is how I've survived. Let me be more specific. This is what I have done to survive in America without health insurance for the past 7 years. I am 53.

The first thing I did was the most obvious and the most difficult- yet I believe that most Americans lack the will to do it. I got healthy.

No more drinking alcohol, smoking cigarettes, or eating that shit that they sell you in the grocery stores. Corn syrup is garbage and they put it in everything. I won't use ethanol in my car because it strips my car of performance and gas mileage and I consider corn syrup- the equivalent of  human ethanol. Your body does not know how to process corn syrup because it does not know what is is. I quit eating a whole host of "cheap carbohydrates" as well. Back in 2007, I was faced with a few looming health issues. Potential diabetes brought about by the shit I was eating and drinking, a complete lack of exercise, and lugging around an extra 80 pounds of fat which was not only hard on my circulatory system- it was creating stress and pain on my knees and ankles and actually preventing me from exercising. So I changed my diet first and quit drinking. As I was losing all of that excess weight, mostly from dietary changes, I introduced a simple exercise plan that included walking 5 miles a day every day of the week. I quit using tobacco. Today I run 2.5 miles a day and I lift weights. I still fight weight gain. I am a member of Planet Fitness which costs me a paltry 10 bucks a month- money well spent.

Once you've done everything you can do to mitigate your own personal health risks- find an independent doctor. Independent doctors are not beholden to giant hospital and health care systems- which means they are not required or encouraged to prescribe unnecessary imaging, tests, and other services unless they need to. One of the greatest health care con jobs in America is the doctor who loves to order un-necessary diagnostic tests because you are insured. Doctors also love to reduce their exposure to malpractice suits with tests which essentially prove nothing and cost thousands.

I am never afraid to weigh my costs against the expected results. If your doctor is somehow offended because you question the need for testing- consider getting a new doctor. I have had two bad experiences, oddly enough both were with female doctors, who were miffed because I questioned the efficacy of what they were trying to accomplish while they were ordering tests which cost me money, serious money. They are so used to burning insurance money that they don't even know what their ordered tests cost anymore, nor do they care. I make a habit of asking- and the truth is- this makes some doctors uncomfortable.

Interview doctors and dentists. Get cash prices and make payment plans. If they don't want to help you- move on. There are still compassionate professionals out there.

Many small and independent labs- and some "doc in the box" type clinics- will provide routine blood work for fractions of the costs of hospitals. I have monthly routine, blood clotting or protime tests. One local hospital charges 100 dollars a month for this testing while my local "doc in the box" arrangement costs me 14 bucks. That's a savings of 1000 dollars a year.

I am currently shopping for a colonscopy- cash price. I  am not afraid to leave our state and get it done outside of Idaho and maybe spend a night in an Oklahoma hotel if need be. The costs of a colonscopy are outrageous and can vary from 1500 to 5000 dollars or more. Getting it done out of state with a cooperative referral is possible with an independent doctor.

Prescriptions. Drug companies are granted 20 year patent protection on drugs they research, develop, and bring to market. Patent protection gives American big pharma a license to steal. Gilead Sciences recently developed a hepatitis C cure which they are selling for 84,000 dollars or 1 thousand dollars per pill over a 12 week period. This is the kind of monopolistic and insane pricing that can only be brought about when desperately ill people need treatment from greedy and protected drug developers. What's a fair price for Gilead's drug? Probably something far less than 84k but it's not like you have any regulatory body checking profit margins once big pharma gets a monopoly license. ww.newsweek.com/insurers-worry-84000-hepatitis-c-drug-sovaldi-could-break-bank-252539

Fortunately the internet has changed the rules of the prescription drug game. Where big pharma once had a captive U.S. audience- many of us have found ways to escape. I routinely use Canadian pharmacies. Would you rather pay 250 bucks for ten tabs of Viagra at a U.S. Walmart or 15 bucks for 10 tabs of Viagra (or its generic equivalent) at Northwest Pharmacy in Canada? 

I recently paid 75 bucks for a 35 gram tube of steroid cream at a local Walmart. I found a 50 gram tube, same strength, in Canada for 22 bucks. That's a savings of over 200%. 

Several years ago, I had friends who frequently traveled to Mexico to buy prescriptions for 1/20th of the costs they incurred in the United States. These were the same drugs produced by the same manufacturers. In a sense, American consumers and their health insurance plans, have subsidized the costs of drugs all over the world.

Behold the rise of ala carte and cash based surgery clinics. http://www.beckersasc.com/asc-turnarounds-ideas-to-improve-performance/cash-pay-surgery-centers-a-trend-for-the-future.html

When you take responsibility for the costs of your own health care- it's amazing to see how quickly and dramatically the costs can come down. It's almost as though you have to become part risk manager- part insurance adjustor and eliminate all of the waste and fraud yourself.

Despite all of this, I am still faced with two dilemmas. In the event of a catastrophic illness or traumatic injury- I will not be able to pay. Obamacare has never offered a true low priced- catastrophic plan. The other problem of course is the looming and enhanced penalties of 2.5% of your income for failing to obtain insurance in 2015 and beyond. I don't think I'm going to pay the penalties and that's my bottom line. I have already considered consulting with an anti Obamacare attorney that I am familiar with. I am quickly becoming one of those people who is growing weary of federal extortion and over reach. Maybe they will have to build new prisons for all of us health care dodgers and then of course- provide health care once we are all confined.

Finally, we may get a health plan we can afford.



  

 

Our Owners

Born On the 5th of July- The Sunday Collage

I've always hated the 4th of July.

In small town America- the 4th of July is often the biggest celebration of the year. There are parades, barbeques, carnivals, fairs, rodeos, shows, fireworks, and lots of drinking and drugging. In America, it's hardly a celebration until a lotta folks get half shit-faced and fully baked.

That why I dreaded it. I used to police that whole mess. Year after year.

In the early 1990's after one night time rodeo, I remember two drunken cowboys shooting bottle rockets at me while I tried to direct traffic in the dark for a couple thousand rodeo spectators. I was so mad that if I thought I could have left my post and caught one of those assholes- I might have. Fortunately, for everyone concerned, I did not.

On Jul 3, 2002, two young men, after a three day runner involving booze, drugs, two under-aged girls, and lots of guns- found themselves dead in a murder suicide. I pulled a 32 hour shift, with no sleep, and somehow managed to string together a couple of sentences for the local TV station on the 3rd or 4th. Then we had the parade- drinking, rodeo and drinking, fireworks and drinking, and 200 calls to dispatch from people pissed off about the loud noises fireworks make all night long.

In the old days I would get mad at people and say, "Ya know, the 4th of July happens every year. Next year, the very same thing will happen. Now you can either get used to this or whine about it every year- that's up to you." You can see how I evolved into the the master politician that I eventually became.

One of the very last years that I worked, maybe 2006, night shift arrested a guy for public urination after warning him not to piss on the street- at least once. After his friends bailed him out of jail, they decided to go and kick out every police car windshield and back window of every unoccupied police car parked at the police station. All of those vehicles had to be parade ready and getting replacement glass in one day was sort of a miracle. I cannot recall how many thousands of dollars it cost- but I can still picture those hung over assholes who did that deed. Unfortunately, I could not prove it in part because the truth is, I just wanted to kick the shit out of a couple of those clowns and I think that venom sort of leaked out in the interview process. Call it part of my masterful interview skills.

Allow me a little circuitous rant if you will..to explain some of that old pent up anger which I find quite amusing even as I write now- because emotions are almost always- honest.

Here's a big piece of self disclosure. There are many times in my life that the very best I could do- was manage not to strike anyone. You cannot really explain the emotional deprivation and resolve  you must possess when you've arrested some sick, hostile biker who spends nearly 2 hours calling you a pussy, telling you your mother tastes like bacon, and then threatening to kill members of your family when he gets out. And all of this you see, is supposed to come off in Ward Cleaver's shower at the end of the shift.  

Somehow the world expects God like behavior out of cops. Cops are supposed to put up with the most deviant, nasty, malicious, deceptive, and sometimes life threatening behavior on the planet- day after day- and then somehow be these magical, nice men who do all the right things.

It's incredible how very little our culture really knows about the day to day emotional grind of law enforcement and the toll it takes on you. The only show that ever came close to depicting it on some sort of superficial level might have been "Hill Street Blues." That show sort of depicted cops the way they really are. Faulty human beings just like everyone else. Even the Captain, the star of the show, was a recovering alcoholic- Frank Furillo. A great character.

I know a few cops who survived the emotional tolls of law enforcement quite nicely, but I was not one of them. I will add one other thing here. Tenacious, tough minded cops- the kind of guys and gals that never say quit and care deeply about how things turn out- are the kind of guys and gals that law enforcement emotionally bleeds. That was me. I feel like I've done a great job at sorting all of that out now- now that I am gone. But back then- there was always the 5th of July.

If the 4th of July marked this country's freedom and independence, then most certainly the 5th of July marked mine. Each and every year, I left town for at least two weeks and sometimes longer on the 5th of July. I didn't even think about work, which might be a lie- but that's the way I'm telling it here.

For two or three glorious weeks, I did whatever I wanted to do, sort of. I didn't have to deal with child abusers, drunken assholes, or arrogant lawyers. For two weeks each year, I got to wear normal clothes and laugh like normal people do. People were not lying to me, making stupid quips about donuts or statements like "I didn't do it" and thinking they were funny and unique. People were treating me decently and I liked it that way. Sometimes they would ask, "What do you do for a living?" and I'd look them right in the eye and tell 'em a lie- because I liked feeling a little normal even if it was only for a couple of weeks a year.

And I would speed everywhere on those vacations. I got pulled over so many times, that my ex nearly had an aneurysm. I think now, I just liked cops and maybe I missed them- in some perverse and misdemeanor sort of way. I never got tickets of course and very often I would tease those bastards unmercifully. Cops never get teased on traffic stops and I have to say that my behavior stopped more than one of these poor, unsuspecting cops dead in their tracks They would figure out rather quickly who and what I was. One time in Minnesota after doing 85 in a 70- I sat in a trooper's car and bullshitted with him for 30 minutes. He gave me a warning ticket and he apologized for that. My ex was pissed.

I don't hate the 4th of July anymore. But I still like the 5th a little better.

Maybe on the 5th of July, I'll will take Elvis for a spin. Maybe 45 in a 30 zone. Maybe one of those Boise motorcycle cops will stop me and I will say to him, "Ya know... the French cops, liberal hipsters, and women ride BMW's. Is that your wife's bike?"

Have a happy, safe, and sane 4th of July. And if the cops show up on your driveway amidst the busted cherry bombs, firecracker shards, and illegal and burnt Roman candle tubes-  be sure and lie to them. Tell em the neighbor kids must have done it. They'll understand.

The Age of Envy- The Sunday Collage

It was kind of a strange week around here.

We had one of the worst GDP reports of the last decade and our Federal Reserve's stock market hardly took notice. Our markets are so distorted and zombified that they don't even pretend to respond to economic stimuli anymore. Only money printing.  

Gold mining stocks, after years of getting their asses kicked, are starting to rise. A gal I hardly know and that was some years ago, called me this week wanting to know where I would park a large sum of money. I told her my money was parked in a gold stock with options (Pretium Resources, PVG) and gold and silver bullion. Pretium has about 7.5 million ounces of gold and about five times that in silver. It is a huge, proven deposit with excellent management and instead of trading at 15-20 bucks where it should be, it trades at 8 bucks. It's almost a certainty that one of the giant miners with dwindling reserves is going to come after Pretium and I think that will happen soon.

I once had a guy tell me when speculating on real estate- figure out where everyone wants to live and then make sure you get there first. I apply that logic to all of my investments.

My "little" brother turned 40 this week and satisfied a bucket list item by playing in a World Series of Poker event. He is getting married in a couple of weeks and this is bringing about an interesting family reunion. Some old family animosities will be present as well as relatives I have never met. I am looking forward to this.

Each week during my travels, I try to remember those things that attract my attention- things worthy of writing about. Several days ago, Hillary Clinton's pronouncement that the Clintons left the White House dead broke- was probably the most ridiculous statement I heard all week.(With the possible exception of that IRS official who claimed the IRS lost Lois Lerner's emails.) Not only have the Clintons' made 100's of millions in dubious fashion, but Bill and Hillary were able to scrape up a million dollar down payment to buy a NY residence so that Hillary could carpet bag the Senate.They were also able to buy a couple other properties- one in the Hamptons- and provide daughter Chelsea with a 5 million dollar wedding. Chelsea's New York apartment cost 11 million. Who knows how that was financed. Maybe Chelsea is ringing up the register trading cattle futures like her mother.

What motivates Hillary Clinton to speak about her financial woes does not interest me in any significant way. Yet,  I find her fascinating. What does interest me is a phenomenon I have been witnessing for the last 20 years. To call it a blend of entitlement and greed is too simplistic.

Now stop and think about this. You are one of the luckiest and richest human beings on the planet. You have won life's lottery. You have had the best education.You have lived in the Governor's mansion, the White House, and you have dined with royalty- literally flown all over the world. Your husband has made 115 million in speaking engagements since 2001- not to mention all of the other income sources- like charging taxpayers rent to house Secret Service agents on your property or the cushy jobs you and your daughter have had like carpet bagging the senator gig in New York. The two taxpayer funded retirements with health benefits that you both enjoy probably seems like small potatoes. You have immediate access to any event in the world. You have your very own entourage of tax payer funded security and multiple homes including one with a pool in the Hamptons.

Hillary Clinton is stricken with the same disease that afflicts many people in this country. Complete and utter unconsciousness coupled with extreme self centered-ness, an enormous sense of entitlement, an absolute lack of gratitude for receiving the best gifts available to anyone on the planet and the callousness of a human being that could let people die in Benghazi without lifting a finger or even uttering an apology. Hillary Clinton is a sociopath and a monster. She is a terrible human being. But that's not what I want to focus on here.

The incessant wanting of our culture has almost bred gratitude out of our societal DNA. We think we are entitled to whatever we desire and when we want something- we think we should have it now. We throw pity parties and tantrums when we don't get what we want. We become spiritually sick.

This incessant wanting causes resentments as we perceive others to be the proximate cause when we don't get what we want. We never find fault with ourselves.

Years ago, we had a young police officer eligible for a promotion. He was clearly the best choice in terms of job performance. However he was so immature at that time that I simply could not see him in a leadership position nor can you really explain that to someone like him without having a confrontation. I think the timing was just bad. So when he discovered he was not being promoted he threw an angry fit and tossed a few chairs around thus validating my immature opinion of him. That was the first time I witnessed a sense of entitlement in full bloom.

In America right now, there is this sense that the enemy is anybody who has achieved something that we covet. We envy others. We envy their education and money, their homes and second homes, (Romney has 5) their motorcycles and cars, their jobs, and their trophy wives with nice boob jobs. This sickness manifests itself in many ways but I think the pentultimate example of it is someone like Hillary Clinton. Completely self absorbed and unconsciousness. Unaware of how the world sees her. I can't find a lot of pity or sympathy for Hillary Clinton- there are so many people, kids dying of cancer- that are never going to get the lottery ticket that Hillary picked up. She woke up on third base and probably thinks she hit the triple.

The solution for all of that madness of course- is a sense of gratitude for all of the things I already possess. Reasonably good health, a good education, a decent retirement income. My family are all reasonably healthy and alive. I have my little bungalow, the Elantra, Elvis the Roadking, my part time job, and freedom to do just about anything I want when I want it. Hell, I retired at 46. Who can do that? Right now, I've got the dream trip.

So I'm pretty grateful. I don't covet bigger houses or any of that bullshit that seems to drive most of our culture. I understand how lucky I have been to have been born to my parents in this country. I didn't select those circumstances and I am well aware of the billions of people who unlike me- did not win the birth lottery or land in countries as great as the U.S. once was.

I got lucky. There is a real sense of humility in realizing that you and your big ego really had nothing to do with the environmental circumstances that lead up to your successes. There are a lot of people who could use that lesson.

Happiness occurs when you accept that life is not fair nor was it ever meant to be. Real happiness occurs when you quit comparing your insides to someone else's outsides. I often wonder why it took me so damn long to figure all of this out and then I think, " Well, just be grateful that you did." I mean it could have been far worse. I could have been born Hillary Clinton. Now that would have been some bad luck.

Melrose- The Sunday Collage

Late last week, I was forced to cut my motorcycle trip through Montana short. The weather was so cold and rainy (and forecast to get far worse) that riding a motorcycle through it was miserable and getting a little unsafe. As I viewed the forecast for the following day which was Sunday- it looked like my only shot at getting out of there. Sunday's high was supposed to be 61 and that looked a lot better to me than the 50 degree highs forecast for Monday and Tuesday. As it happens, it snowed in Butte on Tuesday. I doubt Butte ever saw 50 degrees that day.

I left Butte right around 11 a.m. on Sunday and figured I'd stop in Dillon which is about 70 miles south. About 30 miles south of Butte is a little town called Melrose. Melrose has always been a mystery to me. Montana is full of towns like Melrose- towns that blossom with some possibility of becoming important social centers and then ultimately- they yield to obscurity and survival at some subsistence level with people who are determined to stay. I always wonder how people make a living in places like Melrose.

I decided that I would take the Melrose exit. I cannot remember the Melrose of my youth but common sense tells me that I must have been there. Maybe some memory would come flooding back. 

The main drag has a few buildings, a fly fishing shop, and some sort of restaurant/bar at the very end. All in all, it's maybe 3 or 4 blocks long. Across the way is a little plat with 6 streets running east to west and two streets running north and south. I pointed Elvis in that direction and found myself on the second street named "Hecla" which I have always associated with mining. All in all, there are maybe 40 homes in Melrose, some vacant. I can't imagine that more than 100 people live here.

The real attraction in Melrose is the Big Hole River. It is a world class fishing venue. Folks in Montana live in Montana because of places like the Big Hole. I fished it a few times as a kid. Back then, I took fishing for granted. I had no idea as a child that Butte sits near the heart of four or five of the greatest blue ribbon trout streams in the United States and that one day- it would attract so many sportsmen. The banks of the Big Hole River in my youth were largely vacant and undiscovered. Judging from the number of RV's, campers, trucks and trailers at the local boat ramp on the edge of Melrose- I realize that has all changed. I pointed Elvis in that direction just to get a better look at the river.

That's when it happened. Something so simple that it just never happens anymore. A time machine moment.

As I was approaching the river, there was a young boy walking along the side of the road. He was a tall, skinny kid, no more than 11 or 12 years old. He was wearing jeans, a short sleeved shirt, and he was carrying a fishing pole and a tackle box. As I passed him he turned and looked directly at me and he smiled and waved. He caught me completely off guard. His hair, or more precisely his bangs, were uniformly covering his forehead. For a brief moment in time, I actually thought that kid was me. That is exactly what I would have been doing. That is exactly how I used to look. Acknowledging someone else's presence with a polite smile and a wave is exactly what I might have done 40 years ago. But not today.

As I arrived at the boat ramp, I noted that it was unpaved. I swung a u turn on the paved part of the road to avoid adding a layer of dust to Elvis. The parking area was full. As I turned to exit the area I drove past the young boy a second time. He glanced up at me but did not wave again. Having been caught off guard the first time, I nodded and waved as I drove past him.

Standing between Melrose and Dillon is 40 miles of road. On a motorcycle, there is just you and your thoughts. That's why I love to ride.

When was the last time that I was anywhere, where a young boy or girl was not completely distracted with some electronic gadget? What kid makes the effort to smile and wave at a stranger? When was the last time some strange kid smiled and waved at you? Who does that anymore?

That kid in Melrose does.

I went to Melrose thinking that I must have been there before. Truth is, I have absolutely no memory of the place. But I remember that kid. I remember being polite to people. I remember acknowledging someone else's presence and making the little effort that is required to smile and wave at someone. I quit doing that and I can't tell you why. The world was a kinder, gentler place back then and I miss it. The Montana of my youth might still be alive in places like Melrose. Wouldn't that be cool?

I hope that kid caught a few fish last Sunday. Maybe even a big lunker.

The Fourth Turning

I first read about this phenomenon a couple of years ago. I did some research on it, agreed with the premise, and wrote about the fourth turning on this blog.

Essentially the four turnings or cycles occur every 80 years. Like the seasons, the fourth turning occurs in the last 20 years of the 80 year cycle and marks a sort of winter, or death phase if you will. A cataclysmic ending to the events that preceded the onset of the fourth turning in the first 60 years of the cycle.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory

Many people including myself believe that we entered the fourth turning in 2008. Nothing in today's events are slowing this belief down- in fact- this President, Congress, and Supreme Court seem to be accelerating the fourth turning.

If you don't read anything else this week- read this. It is very well written and explains with precision how the events of today are nothing but lies and distractions and that ultimately- the shit really is going to hit the fan.

http://www.theburningplatform.com/2014/06/16/fourth-turning-accelerating/