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Friday, February 3, 2017

My Fearless 2017 Superbowl Prediction

One of my favorite quotes- taken from a horse racing bettor's t-shirt- "Often wrong, never in doubt."

Such is the world of a sports bettor. C'mon it's the Superbowl- are you really afraid to lose 20 bucks at the party? Or would you rather waist (ha!) your money on sugary coffee? 

Here then is my case for this year's Superbowl winner- the New England Patriots.

The league commissioner, Roger Goodell, suspended Patriot quarterback Tom Brady on the flimsiest evidence in the football deflate gate scandal. The Patriots went 3-1 over that span, losing only to a decent Bills team. Brady isn't just a quarterback- he may be the best that ever played. His numbers certainly indicate that. The Patriots and Brady were already pissed off having missed the SB last year when Denver came in and thumped them. Motivating Tom Brady even more, Goodell handed out his sentence and never attended a game in Gillette stadium. Smart move- Goodell might have been mobbed and beaten by angry fans. Goodell will be in attendance when the trophy gets handed out Sunday.

Bill Belichick might be the best coach ever. I have watched this guy come up with game plans and personnel changes that leave me in awe. You can wear hoodies with cut off sleeves when you are this good. Belichick's teams are well disciplined. 

Defense. Atlanta has none. You cannot win a SB sans a defense. I have seen this time and time again. If the game evolves into a shoot out- the Patriots will still win. NE's defense ranked 8th this year, the Falcons was 25th.

In terms of offense, Atlanta ranked 2, NE ranked 4.

The only significant injury is world class TE Gronkowski for the Patriots. They have a very capable bench and while the loss of Gronk is significant- they have plenty of other weapons.

Last but not least is an oddball item I use. A weird angle. Superbowl winning teams do not lose to losing teams during the regular season. While this is not a perfect angle- I think it hits with 75-80% percent accuracy. The Patriots lost to the Bills and the Seahawks. The Falcons lost 5 games, most notably were losses to the Buccaneers, Eagles, and 5-11 San Diego! (SD even lost to the Browns which prevented Cleveland from going 0-16)

On the Falcons side of things, I think they are an improving club. They look like world beaters at home. That's what kept the spread so low.

On Sunday, they are going to play the battle tested and proven veterans of football. 

In my circle, people are sick of seeing the Patriots year after year. Everyone is rooting for a Falcon victory- except the smart money. Yesterday, a well respected gambler friend of mine wagered 2100.00 on the Patriots. 

The spread is currently Patriots -3. I think the Patriots can easily cover this- and may win by 10 to 14 points. The total is 59 points and I'm not sure that's high enough.

Be sure and chime in if the Falcons win. I especially enjoy caustic comments regarding my lack of intelligence, my poor judgment, or any number of other nasty comments from the usual suspects.