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Saturday, January 9, 2021

Nancy Gets Her Beachhead

Several years ago now, I was introduced to the idea of a political beachhead. A beachhead is an established and somewhat safe landing area on a beach through which an attacking army can move troops and equipment. 

My introduction to that concept began while talking to a community organizer in the pre-lottery days (1980's) of Idaho. My organizer friend explained that although most people do not care for gambling he believed lottery officials would be able to sell state legislators on the idea that they would skim some of the profits from the lottery and return it to the state in the form of education costs for children and schools. States would also reap the windfall benefits of taxing lottery winners. The only losers would be the people playing the lottery. 

So the lottery officials established a beachhead by promising a little payola to the states. Since states and their politicians are always looking for new revenue sources, the lottery became an easy sell. We are now seeing the same beachhead being established for medical marijuana sales. Soon enough, marijuana for recreational use will be the norm and not the exception in most states.

Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and other members of the Uni-Party have been desperately trying to establish a beachhead with respect to their hated rival, Donald Trump. They've been trying to land on that anti-Trump beach for four years and they have been repelled. They've tried Russian election hoaxes, personal attacks and ridicule, impeachment proceedings, and even a Chinese manufactured pandemic as source material for getting rid of President Trump. They were never able to establish a beachhead until January 6, 2020.

On January 6, pro Trump supporters gathered in Washington D.C. to support President Trump. Trump had established credible evidence of voting irregularities in several swing states. These states had manipulated their voting processes to such a degree that it enabled widespread cheating. I could run those processes down state by state, but it is not necessary for practical purposes here. As Trump enumerated those states and their practices to his irritated followers, the crowd grew angry. In a bid to observe or interrupt electors gathered to confirm the electoral college vote, the angry crowd stormed the capitol building. An unarmed woman was shot and killed. A capitol police officer died of injuries he received in the melee' and a few others were reportedly killed. Proceedings were interrupted for six hours, the capitol building was damaged. 

There it was. The beachhead. After four long years, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and all of the other members of the UniParty had finally found a safe place to land on Trump's well defended beach. Even Twitter, now seeing which side was winning, mustered the courage to suspend Trump's account.

With only two weeks remaining in his term, Pelosi, Schumer, and other members of the UniParty have to act fast. Anyone defending President Trump at this point will be hailed as an obvious idiot. There will be no mercy shown, no letting the clock run down. Will they try to fast track an impeachment in eleven days? I think they will. Impeachment may prevent Trump from running again.

Establishing this last beachhead reveals quite a bit about nasty human behavior. We are governed by classless, self serving, and vindictive human beings. With a win well in hand, we'll see if these leaders of the UniParty reveal themselves even further or just spare us the drama.

They should tread lightly here. Obama's third term is about to start and the UniParty has been scrambling to cover up all that bribe money Hunter Biden scrounged up from the Ukraine and China and delivered to the "big guy." It's all right there on Hunter's laptop. You shouldn't leave that stuff laying around. Hunter like his father, ain't the sharpest spoon in the drawer.

It appears Biden now has a beach of his own to defend.




Thursday, January 7, 2021

Tesla Becomes World's Only Auto Maker....

 .....stock is up 40 bucks trading at 800 a share with a nosebleed p/e of 1500. 

Tesla has become the world's only automaker. It's founder and CEO, Elon Musk, has become the world's richest man.

The old legacy auto makers, as well as those 20 or so electric auto makers in China, have all apparently quit making vehicles.They have thrown in the towel. Instead of making cars, the old auto makers have simply purchased Tesla stock and gape at their astonishing returns each day. 

"Simply buying Tesla stock, while shuttering our factories and reducing our overhead to zero, has enabled us to become wildly profitable" said an anonymous source.

Based on the outstanding float, Tesla stock holders have now valued every Tesla vehicle coming off the assembly line this year at approx. 1.3 million per vehicle. 

Elon Musk issued another 5 billion worth of shares recently and rather than dilute the existing price, the stock has risen another 20%. Many industry insiders think that Musk should just keep issuing shares until the value of Tesla stock hits 1000.

With one foot in the grave, I've lived through some unbelievable bubbles and crashes. It's always different each time- that's what they tell investors. The market crashes of 2000 and 2008 had insane valuations on companies that never came to fruition. Those bubbles were blown by internet merchandising and then real estate in 2008.

You could call this bubble- "the everything bubble." It's the nuclear button. Here's how it works.

The Federal Reserve sends lending rates to all time lows. I can get a 30 year mortgage today for 2.37%. As the cost of mortgage borrowing becomes cheaper, the value of homes rise because now you qualify for a bigger loan so sellers just raise the price. It's essentially a wash sale between buying and selling especially if you stay within the same zip code.

As people cash out investments and real estate, M1 (demand deposits) begins to soar because nobody is making anything in savings accounts or CD's. So capital just sits in those M1 holding pens until it is redeployed. Thus the only path for all this excess capital is back into equities, bonds, and other hybrid investments like index funds and exchange traded funds. Some excess capital flows into foreign markets, real estate, precious metals, and even crypto currencies as every investor chases some sort of return. Federal, state, and other retirement funds have the same dilemma. They must chase return where ever they can find it. Which brings us back to equities like Tesla and Amazon- wildly valued v any metric or yardstick I can find.

So here's the dilemma. Do you get out and watch markets rise another year and lose out on potential gains, do you short markets hoping to catch the cliff dive, or do you cash out and stay safe?

Currently I am cashed out and safe. 

Remember the tulip bulb craze in Holland? Everyone was speculating on tulip bulbs, driving prices to insane levels, hoping to get rich and dump the investments on greater fools. 

That's where I think Tesla is. I also think that's where bitcoin is. I don't know when prices finally collapse but a lot of warning signs are flashing. I'm not worried about missing a few more months of gains. I accept that I ain't Nostradamus.

Tesla be damned.



Wednesday, January 6, 2021

Biden Bribes Georgia with Stimulus, and Voila!

Just bribe the voters with 2000 dollar stimulus checks if the democrats win and suddenly millions of Georgia voters have a reason to vote. President Trump didn't help matters either with his non stop threats and criticisms- justified or not.

The Georgia run off elections for Senate last night have both gone to the democrats. I cannot envision a worse scenario for the country.

Chuck Schumer will become the senate majority leader. The 80 year old drunk, Nancy Pelosi, will be speaker of the house. Our new Vice President has been scored as the most liberal voting Senator in either house, and our new President has taken bribes from the Ukraine and China via his crack smoking son.

Here's the good news. The markets today are pricing in new stimulus packages from these morons. Our debt levels will soon crack 30 trillion. With tax proceeds generously rounded up to 5 trillion per year we will have a debt to income ratio of approx. 600%. 

For most of us, 70% debt to income ratios require bankruptcy proceedings. We could never achieve levels of 600% debt levels because nobody would lend us one thin dime.

We will soon enter the closing act of a play that began in earnest in 2008. 

Secretly, I've wanted this for many years. There is simply no other way of restructuring this mess we've gotten ourselves into. We've elected these assholes, given them unlimited terms with which to elicit corporate and banking bribes via lobbyists, and now they will furiously line their own pockets. Markets will go supernova as the dollar loses value. Servicing 30 trillion dollar debt interest at current rates will cost Americans about 800 billion a year. The liberals will then think they can re-invent the wheel. They'll try some stupid shit like Modern Monetary Theory- only to find out that they theory may have worked at zero debt levels but does not account for the 30 trillion dollar debt levels we already have. Then they'll try taxing us in earnest- while trying to install medicare for all type programs. In the end, they'll simply try to inflate away the debt but that will fail also. 

Our currency will lose reserve status and China will announce they have secured enough gold to back the yuan. 

Our only hope will be to call a convention of states to address this pending disaster but I don't think anyone has the courage to do this. I wrote about it recently.

So the good news is that we can finally get this over with and start new again. I honestly didn't think I'd see it in the next 20 years or so but I think there is now a chance to see a dollar collapse in the next 5 years.

I believe that in the coming months and years- everything will be up for grabs. State pensions, social security, a dollar collapse. The things you take for granted may not exist at all- just a simple legislative vote here and there and your income may vanish. States like Illinois and California are already staring into that abyss.

It's time to start preparing. Last night I was looking at .223 ammunition on line that cost me 6.99 for 20 rounds. It is now 35.99. That's a 500% rise in just a couple of years.

I loved seeing everyone expressing how much they hated the year 2020 as though things were bound to get better in 2021. Unless they don't.