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Saturday, February 2, 2013

2300 Retail Stores To Close, Expect Dow 15k by July

The insanity continues. A few days ago...

Dave over at the Golden Truth had mentioned that some very big, national retailers were shutting down and closing stores. Today I found this article on Yahoo.

So just how many more people will become unemployed as a result of this? It's hard to tell for sure but...

This is how the new math works.

These eight chains will report higher earnings as a result of leaning out their structures. Quarterly results  are bound to improve. Another 200,000 workers will be unemployed, paying substantially lower taxes, and receiving unemployment. This of course is all bullish for the stock market.

Decades ago, it was pretty much understood that employment had always been a lagging economic indicator. Markets predicted future economic health and as businesses expanded their operations, employment picked up and eventually peaked at the top of the business cycle. That is no longer true.

Employment gains have been part time, poorly paid, with no benefits. This of course is good for corporate interests because they don't have to pay employees squat.

Last night I was giggling as I watched a Kyle Bass interview. He compared our stock market to Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe's market has been the best performing market of the decade. Trouble is, a giant portfolio in Zimbabwe is worth about 3 hard boiled eggs anywhere else. They've had a tough time hiding their inflation, perhaps they should have consulted the professionals in America. Expect Dow 15,000 by July.

Friday, February 1, 2013

One Day, the Economic Truth Will Reveal Itself

Remember the days when the markets reacted appropriately to news? It's been about 6 years since Ben Bernanke decided to ignite the mother of all bull markets to avoid a deflationary death spiral brought about by crooked bankers making shitty loans. Ben has added trillions upon trillions of unbacked dollars.

Are we in a recovery? Is a recovery imminent? Of course not. I will prove that in a minute.

Today's job report came out and it was actually bad. The media of course made it sound like Happy Days as usual. Unfortunately to prove otherwise, you have to be willing to go dig for the real numbers which is always a pain in the ass.

The easiest way to gauge the health of employment is actually quite simple. Use tax revenue. In fact that is so simple- you can't massage it. Which is why the government and economists refuse to use it. Think social security withholding. That's a pretty accurate gauge.

Then we have POMO. Today is a POMO day.

Short for Permanent Open Market Operations.

The mechanism by which the Federal Reserve manipulates the stock market.
It is no secret that the Federal Reserve, and its now semi-daily interventions in market liquidity via POMO, is rather hell bent on creating the illusion that the economy is alive and well courtesy of a ramping stock market.

Each month the Federal Reserve adds 85 billion in liquidity. This extra money, created out of thin air, has to land somewhere. Since the Fed has killed any kind of return anywhere- except for US equity markets- POMO money lands there. A little over a trillion a year.

The schedule for POMO this month is outrageous. The Fed is in the market every day for the next 9 days- including today.

By the end of this year, the Fed will own 4 trillion of it's own debt.

If you ever wanted to make some easy money on a short term trade- get long on an index thru Valentine's Day this month. Sell your position on Thursday at the end of the non stop POMO. (14th) I am going to trade out of my short positions. It's just idiotic to continue to try and swim upstream against the ministers of propaganda.

When yesterday's GDP print came at -.1 on expectations of 1.2... the market didn't even budge. That was a gigantic miss and should have triggered a 300 point DJIA loss. The number would have been far worse but the government bought an extra 100 billion dollars worth of junk in Dec. and then used a ridiculously low inflation figure (.6 annualized) to keep it even more elevated. Truth be told- the GDP print was probably around -1.

So when that miss happened, the propaganda ministers were in the news doing damage control for their masters. The elite want Dow 14,000 and they will get it. In fact, as I write this- that hurdle was just cleared.

I miss the days when the market actually behaved according to credible news reports. There are many people that think the Fed can never stop QE or POMO because once they do- there will be a rush for the exits. So the alternative is to simply continue to print, to debase your currency, to fuel liquidity until such point in the future when the truth becomes self evident- hyperinflation occurs- and the party is over.

Name the last recovery that required trillions upon trillions of dollars, printed out of thin air, to be added to our economy. Go ahead. You have five seconds. {Jeopardy tune}

Answer, none.

So the answer is quite simple. If we were actually in any kind of economic recovery- the Fed wouldn't be adding a trillion a year in liquidity would it?

Thursday, January 31, 2013

Obedient Lawmen Protect Their Image, That Is Always Job One

Gun Control

In Boise, the Ada County Sheriff has been employed by the county for nearly 30 years. He didn't get that job nor does he keep that job by making disobedient statements or by rendering personal opinions.

People expect community leaders to make rational statements. So Gary Raney's statement about gun control is really pretty predictable. Raney knows that gun control efforts are all bluster and that eventually the issue will pass. Either way, it won't matter much to him. When the smoke clears, Raney will look just like the smart, level headed Sheriff who Ada County voters elected. His statement about gun control is really about how smart, rational, and re-electable he is.

Boilerplate statement follows:


Arizona S.B. 1112

In Arizona, law makers have had enough of the Federal Government eroding the Constitution and usurping the authority of states to govern themselves. This is where I line up. This is also why I am "retired." Taking a a pro oath Constitutional stand means alienating the Ada statists and losing votes. Sheriff Raney would never take a stand such as that- and indeed he didn't. Good sheriffs always think about their image and the next election. Arizona lawmakers apparently aren't too worried about the liberal vote.

Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Putting Frosting On Shit and Calling it Cake

Be warned, you may need some Kleenex before you get through this. All month long I've been getting my ass kicked.

Gold and silver were down at the end of January as the bankers (JPM, HSBC) feverishly shorted futures in an attempt to drive metal prices down before Feb. delivery which ended yesterday.

So I did what I often do. I bought more silver. Cheaper.

When the DJIA struck 13,400 I toyed with the idea of shorting that index. Instead, I shorted the Russell 2000 around 875 and I promptly took a 10% haircut this month as the index made new highs. I am planning on shorting some more. You must always keep some powder dry.

If that weren't bad enough- things haven't been that rosy here in Boise either. People are calling this the worst winter in 20 years. This morning I woke up and there is another two or three inches of snow on the ground. This is something I am used to. What I am not used to is a bunch of burhka wearers and crackheads on cellphones trying to drive around in it- and a city with no snowplows.

So there's that and a few other issues. But I shall leave the subject there rather than force you to swallow the rest of your Prozac or Xanax- as the case may be.

This morning, I read an article on Zerohedge which I shall summarize thusly. The market can't go up forever. Only it took this author about 1000 or so words to say that. This is precisely the kind of article I hate to see. Why? Because there will be even more morons shorting this market which means we will all have to "buy to cover" our short positions and drive this zombie up some more.

Buried within the comments of that article was a commenter who stated that you can't keep putting frosting on shit and calling it cake. I laughed out loud.

Yes you can. They have been doing it for 5 years.

Let them eat cake.

Monday, January 28, 2013

Iranian Nuke Plant Gets Blown Up...American Media Reports...Nothing

I'm sticking my neck out here. I think this story is credible.

Apparently some super secret Iranian nuke plant got blown up a week ago- and I have yet to see one story about it from the "American media."

In the American news world, we get a steady diet of absolute bullshit, like whether or not Notre Dame football player Manti Te'o had a real girlfriend or not. There are pages and pages of that garbage on google.

It's a closed loop. The rich and elite own the media and they feed us crap like this to peruse. There is no way that our "leaders" don't know about this. No way. We get a football player with a make believe girlfriend. We get a steady diet of that. God help us.

Here's the story in a London tabloid.

The reason I think this story is true is because of the way it is leaking out- via worried family members. This is how I would expect it to leak out if in fact Iran tried to hush it all up and avoid embarrassment. I think the Israelis' got em. Maybe us. This is also the same type of shit Russia pulled with Chernobyl sans the sabotage. Never said a word. So this makes sense to me. We'll find out in the coming weeks.

Here is Iran's denial in the BBC. If you want real news- turn to sources outside the U.S.

Thanks, Pat.

New Site Construction*Updated

Forgive me for playing around with the blog this week. I'm one of those guys that gets bored with things looking the same way, day after day.

Every once in awhile, you just have to move the furniture around. 

So I am going to play around with the layout of this blog until I find something new and exciting- something that will draw readers here- because my writing sure as hell ain't getting it done.

Anything a normal human being can do in an hour or two- takes me about three days.  

*Meh. I am already getting tired of trying on the sweeping changes that I envisioned. I am "color challenged." Think I am just going to stick with the blue theme and blocky letters for awhile. 

Sunday, January 27, 2013

The Obedient Class- The Sunday Collage

This week I traded insults with some of the liberals over at Huffpo. Sooner rather than later, I get tired of all that nonsense and I just delete their comments.

You just have to ignore them like the crackheads across the street from me. Well, when they are not shooting guns at 1 a.m. 

Something new dawned on me during the flame war this week. It was a common thread, something I noticed in their nasty, little Huffpo comments. Liberals are obedient. An entire obedient class of people who think that everyone should live the way they do. Everyone should believe what they believe. To think otherwise leaves you isolated and alone. They actually think that you are a dumb shit if you don't agree with them. 

They use the same arguments, say the same things. If they had a unique thought- I'd clutch my chest and die of heart failure. Their thought patterns are completely predictable. 

They are slaves to a thought process that must always focus on the smallest picture. De minimis. 

Guns are bad. Health care is good. Dog poop on the bike path is bad. Recycling is good. Smoking is bad. Anything organic is good. 

I don't actually disagree with any one of those things. I just don't want the obedient class demanding or telling me how to think. I want freedom. Yes, freedom. We used to have that in America until the liberals started chipping away and creating laws for everything. The libs even try to control the dialogue.

The problem with obedient people is that often all they see is the smallest picture- which is often little more than a distraction. They always see minutia. If they accomplish their goals they don't really worry about the ancillary or larger problems that they create when a smaller problem gets taken care of. They don't mind giving up guns if it means losing their freedom. They don't mind health care for everyone if it creates debt slaves out of all of us. They don't think that somebody is actually going to have to pay for that. Maybe we can force those rich bastards to pay for it.

Once obedient people achieve a new goal or establish some new law, they have expectations that everyone else will obey it. Like dog poop laws. Surely everyone will pick up their dog poop won't they? We won't actually have to hire people to police that will we?

Every time an obedient person thinks they have solved one problem- another problem pops up. Sometimes, they give away the farm as they go about "solving" the small problems. That's why gun control is going to be such a nasty, uphill fight- one that they will lose. When you give up your guns, you give up your freedom. Freedom loving people, cops, and soldiers never ever give up their guns. It is in our DNA. A defenseless society becomes an easy to control society. The state become omnipotent. The state will not only demand your obedience but it will have the only means to get the job done.

I love it when the obedient class says, "The state won't do that." Bet me. In fact, more people died at the hands of sociopathic rulers in the 20th century than at any other time in history. Think Stalin, Hitler, Pol Pot, Hiroshima, Nagasaki, the United States. Yes, we do a lot of killing. People in power- always cling to their power. When their only threat, the people they rule over- decide to turn in their guns, the people in power love that idea. They will actually facilitate it- just as they are doing now. 

I have to accept that right now- the obedient liberals have the upper hand. They are willing to sell freedom out for just a few more laws. They don't understand the problem. As you dissect and look at those old Constitutional framers, a picture of real genius emerges. They invented the greatest Republic of all time. They saw the past as well as the future and they predicted all of this. They were not obedient people. The framers would have hated the obedient class.  

Isabelle Patterson knew them also.

“Most of the harm in the world is done by good people, and not by accident, lapse, or omission. It is the result of their deliberate actions, long persevered in, which they hold to be motivated by high ideals toward virtuous ends.” 
 Isabel Paterson, The God of the Machine