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Friday, November 30, 2012

Bring On Revelations, Shifting Poles, Solar Flares, Space Rocks, or the Next Disaster Du Jour

Three weeks and counting. 12/21/2012. Let me ramble just a hair. I will disclose some of the inner workings of my smallish, ape like brain. Let's start here...

For a guy who believes in a universal intelligence, a guy who believes Jesus Christ was real, I gotta tell you- I think the Book of Revelations is some of the greatest science fiction ever conceived and written. Have you ever wondered why the Catholic Church with held a number of "books" from the Bible yet chose to include Revelations? One man's uncorroborated visions, or prophecy?

The Book of Revelations accomplishes exactly what it was designed to do. It was designed to instill fear into folks and scare them into compliance. That's what churches do. If hell didn't exist, they would have to make one up. That's how they get people to comply. Think about the absolute worst thing you can possibly imagine. First we create some horrible place- let's call it hell, and then we tell you that if you do not act according to our wishes- you will spend all of eternity there. Men have been making up wonderful fear mongering stories forever...

So Revelations is this crazy, horrible story meant to scare the hell out of you. I will tell you how crazy I am. When I discover your true intent, I act contrary to that. I have one other piece of biblical fiction to mention...

The story of Job is utterly fantastic and one of my favorites. God sits idly by while Satan kills Job's daughters, strips Job of his wealth, and ruins his health. Not once did Job blame God. God was just trying to prove some sort of loyalty point. Nobody apparently ever questions this stuff.

That's what loving Gods do? They kill your loved ones to prove a point?

Maybe Job's daughters just died. Simple as that. Where was Satan during the black plague, Stalin, or Hitler? Surely killing tens of millions of people deserves an honorable mention, doesn't it? Will some great future Pope appoint some scribe to write about those things and include them in a bible 2000 years from now?

Who knows? Here's where I am going with this.

Historically speaking, I have noted this fear mongering theme throughout the annals of time. I have noted it throughout my life. It goes like this. Act the way that we want you to and you will get the reward. Act contrary to the way that we want and you to- and you shall feel the punishment. This reward- punishment theme works good on kids and animals. Sometimes it works on adults too. Remember how William Wallace died at the end of Braveheart? Drawn and quartered, his head stuck on a spike.  Historically accurate, I might add. Not unlike the crucifixion of Christ. Pretty gruesome.

So human beings can be pretty sick about forcing your compliance and obedience. All that has really changed is that we have gotten a little more civilized about how we kill you when you don't act the way that we want. We give you your lethal injection. Or we drop bombs on you with unmanned drones. 

This power, control, reward and punishment theme is everywhere and we have been practicing it for a long time. Fear demands obedience. That's the only thing we know. The Mayans long count calendar ends on 12/21/2012. That's it. There was no doom and gloom, no polar shift, no solar flare predicted. We added all of that ridiculousness because that's what people do. People instill fear in others. Remember the great computer apocalypse of 2000? 

The problem with all of this fear mongering, end of times, rapture nonsense, isn't that it won't happen one day. The end of times comes for all of us. The problem I have is sorting out facts from human contrived fiction. There is actually a fantastic precedent for this. Like a good piece of English 101 writing, I shall end where I began.

Historically speaking, and I am certainly not prepared to deliver references here, the Jewish people have been an enslaved and tortured lot. They were looking for revenge about the time Christ showed up. The revenge thing didn't happen. In fact, Jesus was apparently unmanipulated by all of this fear and hatred nonsense, and he never bought in. In fact, Jesus didn't act at all like a fear mongering human being nor did he ever say anything harsh or terrible or promise to come back and kick some ass like the Book of Revelations claims. In fact, because Jesus did not try to scare us, is precisely why I believe that he was the real deal. A universal intelligence delivered here in the hope that we might learn something. I gotta say, so far, it has not exactly been mission success.

Ultimately, you have to make your own decisions on this rock. I have a hard time buying into any of the disaster concepts except- the man made ones. Those you can believe in. 

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Funny How Fallin' Feels Like Flyin'

Gold. I just can't get this tune out of my head today. Odd.

More Thoughts on Gold

With gold trading at nearly 1800 dollars an ounce, (with commission) I had a reader email me the other day and ask me about gold and some other vehicles for getting invested- primarily because he did not have 1800 bucks laying around to buy an ounce of gold every month.

I think the time is getting short. Two dollar gas is gone forever. So is 1200 dollar gold. In a hyper inflationary event, cash will be trash. It will not be worth going to work because the gas may cost more than you will earn that day. All that remains to be seen is a gold backed currency that people can trust in and buy again. When that currency arrives, the dollar will be declared officially dead.

I am going to make the most definitive and comprehensive case for owning gold via bullet points without a lot of explanation. After that, I am going to list some ways to wade into the gold market.

First off, let me say this. Banks are still in charge. *They sold 8000 contracts this a.m. on absolutely no news, with no bid, and drove the price down some 25 bucks in a minute or two. This happens with impunity. are the counter party to the long gold trade. That's ok. Every story has an antagonist. I am not an expert but I've been making money trading bullion throughout my life. Oddly, I have never traded mining stocks until recently. So let's take a look.
  • Worldwide derivative (debt) exposure has been estimated at 1.5 quadrillion. 
  • Japan, most of the Eurozone, and the United States are completely bankrupt. 
  • There is nothing backing these currencies. They are being counterfeited in large amounts.
  • The world is auditing, repatriating, and hoarding gold. Especially India and China.
  • The world is running out of new gold and silver production, new and rich ore bodies are  scarce or non existent.
  • Less than 1% of the world's population owns gold. It is still exceedingly rare.
  • Countries (China, Russia, Iran) are trading oil and other goods for gold to bypass dollar exchange rates. Gold is real money.
  • Gold in storage may be encumbered and missing. Nobody has even seen Fort Knox gold for 40 years. It is the U.S. Treasury's to sell... and they don't need your permission.
  • As gold becomes harder to find and produce, other precious metals will come into focus.
At prices north of 1800 dollars, cash rich miners will begin kicking tires, buying junior miners with promising claims or forming partnerships.
  • Gold and other precious metals are the only liquid way to preserve wealth in an inflationary storm.
  • Costs of production may soar.
  • Producers may quit selling their product. Think about that.
  • Any number of black swan events could trigger a mass exodus into gold. If you are not there when it happens, you will be shut out. 
  • Never have I seen such a perfect storm brewing, not even on a historical basis.
As I analyze all of the upside potential, I don't see anything limiting gold. Rather, I only see things that enlarge demand. I am even seeking exposure to other metals. Copper, nickel, lead.

Bullion is always the preferred method of precious metals ownership. But gold at 1800 is a lot of money. Buying smaller bars and gram weights subjects you to huge premiums. As a rule of thumb, never pay more than 5-8% in premiums to a bullion dealer.

I don't think it matters whether you buy the latest kookaburra or Johnson Mathey bars. Silver should have .999 purity, I want gold with ( 4-9) 999.9 purity.

If you only have hundreds or a thousand or two of disposable wealth to get into precious metals, I would suggest opening an account and buying shares of Eric Sprott's PHYS or PSLV. Those trusts have real metal, audited and accounted for. Shares are redeemable in metal.  Shares are also priced fractionally lower than the metal. Around 14 bucks currently- in each. You don't have to pay huge premiums or storage costs. I think they are perfect investment vehicles. 

If you want to speculate on miners, especially the ones who might get taken out on a bid, find ones with real producing claims that actually make money. Like Kinross. If you want junior miners, (miners kicking tires, looking for good assays, claims) make sure they have at least some potential. Mining is expensive. Most start ups can't afford to mine on their own. What you are really hoping to do is sell your claim to a bigger, well financed outfit at a premium. Be wary of very small pink sheet miners. Often, they are just a scam.

Use your own due diligence to analyze balance sheets, earnings, virtually everything a CEO says in a prospectus. Words come very cheap when selling stock. 

I use options to buy into producing miners. Think about that. Would you rather control 100 shares of Kinross when some suitor comes to buy them- or 10 contracts that control 1000 shares at a lesser price than the stock trades for? (I own Kinross calls) Of course you can lose some or all of your investment if the options are not sold or exercised in the money.

It makes a lot more sense to be a big miner looking to buy smaller miners than vice versa. So in that sense, Kinross makes more sense than Barrick. Although I have seen vice versa happen.

I don't trade futures. I don't like the idea of bankers manipulating paper and whipsawing investors. It's like sitting in a no limit poker game with 200 dollars when everyone else at the table has 5000 grand. The bankers have agreed to collude and carve up anyone entering the game. That's what they do and the CFTC simply turns a blind eye to it. If you look around and can't find the pigeon in any game- you're it.

So that's about it. I surf the Golden Truth, Harvey Organ, TF Metals, 321 Gold, FOFOA, and Zerohedge daily. I do a lot of research through my brokerage account and I now have a list of 60 miners which continues to grow. I watch all of them as well. I think 2013 is shaping up as one hell of a crazy year. Not in a good way either- unless you have backstopped yourself with a little gold and silver.

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Moron Attempts To Steal, Then Kills Monkey at Boise Zoo

Who among us hasn't gotten drunk and thought, "Hey, I should go down to the local zoo tonght and steal one of those little monkeys. That sounds like a good idea." So I think a little compassion is in order here before we proceed.

Now to be fair, I do not know what level of stupidity one must attain in order to hatch the type of fiendish plot you will find at the link. I am not sure that booze alone will explain this away.

As you read the news article, a theme begins to emerge. The only thing that behaved like a rational human being in this story- was the monkey.

The lawyer in this story is doing what lawyers do. Hinting at another culpable party, trying to draw in a second gunman, hoping to use that undiscovered information to assist his client in receiving a reduced sentence. The lawyer blames drug and alcohol use, the death of an aunt, the illness of a grandmother, the unemployed status of the defendant, and then the birth of a child. The lawyer is thinking- maybe I will just flock shoot the entire gamut of available excuses for my client here and hope something works. Idaho doesn't have an insanity defense.

The judge is doing what judges do. The bond amount is set at 150, 000. Judges love to tell cops that bond amounts are only as high as they need to be to guarantee the accused's appearance in court. Cops always want high amounts. Judges claim they are not meant to be punitive because we have this fallacious concept that people are innocent until proven guilty. This of course is complete bullshit. Kill a little monkey at the zoo, in a town full of animal loving people, and you are going to get a 2nd degree murder style bond amount.

What judge wants to be remembered as the judge who cut the monkey murderer some slack at this year's Christmas party? Then the parents chime in. This level of unconsciousness explains everything to me. With parents  like these, things begin to make sense. Intelligent thought and taking responsibility for your actions does not seem to be present in this particular DNA strand. I shall leave you with a quote from Watkins' father, the monkey self defense claim. No additional commentary is needed.

"He's not a malicious monkey murderer," Watkins said. "I'm thinking the monkey attacked him and he just tried to defend himself. I don't think he ever intended to kill it; he's just not that kind of guy."

Monday, November 26, 2012

The Mystery of Moonbat Valley Revealed

Sometimes, you can't go back.

I had a reader ask me in the comment section to explain my references to Moonbat Valley  So I thought I would take this opportunity to explain what Moonbat Valley is and why I use Moonbat Valley as my geographical antagonist. First the term moonbat, a term which describes liberals.

Idaho as you know- is the "reddest" of the red states. We are still heavily governed by conservative forces, chiefly agricultural concerns and mormons. Except for one county. The liberal outpost. Blaine County. Blaine County has a river running through it. The Wood River. In Idaho, the cities of Bellevue, Hailey, Ketchum, and Sun Valley are locally referred to as the Wood River Valley. It is the Wood River Valley that I am referring to when I mention Moonbat Valley.

When I was a small child we would travel to Sun Valley from Montana. Little did I know that I would spend my entire career there.

What makes the Sun Valley/Ketchum/Hailey area unique is that not only was it the nation's first giant destination ski resort but local marketing forces sought out and attracted the nation's most wealthy and elite. World class writers like Hemingway and actors like Clark Gable and Errol Flynn came here originally. Hollywood made a movie called Sun Valley Serenade here. All that movie was- was one giant advertisement for the resort. The film industry came here in droves- see link.,_Idaho As a result of all of those marketing efforts- the most famous and elite names in American society are here. It became a beautiful playground.

Today, world class billionaires like Earl Holding (owns the resort) Warren Buffett (George Allen and Company) visit here frequently. Mariner and now, Spencer Eccles own property here.

Bruce Willis, Demi Moore, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Maria Schriver are here. Maybe a hundred actors like Jamie Lee Curtis, Pamela Sue Martin, Batman, Adam West and the Green Hornet, Van Williams. Carole King lives N of Moonbat Valley in Custer County. Professional sports team owners, athletes like Picabo Street and Mats Wilander. Steve Wynn is here. Old money is here. The DuPont family. The heirs to John Deere, Pizza Hut, Sizzler, Strohs beer, the Chicago Wrigleys, Teresa Heinz, John Kerry, Kiril Sokoloff. Clint Eastwood used to live here- a rare conservative who fled. There are literally hundreds of corporate trust funders and spoiled brats running around. Without a doubt, there are more rich people per capita in the Wood River Valley than anywhere else in the U.S. I'd bet on it- but it would be difficult to prove. The California influence is tremendous.

Former astronauts reside in Moonbat Valley. The owners of Seattle Slew live in Sun Valley. Walter Annenberg came here too. His parents published the Daily Racing Form which still survives and which- yours truly- still uses.

Now a normal person might think, gosh with all that money, you'd think those people would be conservative. That's where logic and I parted company many, many years ago. The rich and elite are well educated. They buy in to the anti-establishment, anti-conservative thesis offered up on every college campus in America. This place is home to the west's environmentalist movement (Jon Marvel) one of the main ouposts for the disastrous re-introduction of wolves. (Jim Dutcher)  It is an outdoor recreation paradise and everybody wants to keep it that way.

The place is ruled by the rich and the wanna be rich. When the rich wanted the local hospital to be built in Ketchum away from the population base in Hailey- they simply donated land and millions to have it built next to them. When the rich wanted a YMCA to use as a daycare- they hijacked the project and situated it once again- 13 miles away from the population base in Hailey and put it in Ketchum for their convenience.

Liberals, environmentalists, atheists, well educated entrepreneurs, skiiers, investors. They worship the rich here. The place is so decidedly liberal that it rivals San Francisco on a much smaller scale of course. In fact, I don't even know one local politician in any city that would actually claim to be Republican. Maybe in Bellevue.

There is no balance in Moonbat Valley. No two party system. They hate conservatives and the GOP. They think that government is the answer to every thing. Helmet laws, seatbelt laws. Dog poop laws. Recycling laws. Obamacare. They don't ever mind spending someone else's money to regulate your conduct. That's where the oppressive part begins. These people ooze statism.

The other suffocating part of dwelling among the moonbats is that they lord over you. You have to agree with their politics, their opinions, and their beliefs. They want mob rule because they are the mob. If you utter a contrary belief- you are not entitled to do that usually. It is looked upon as being disrespectful. The elite want obedient workers. If you want to keep your job in Moonbat Valley among the elites- you better learn to kiss some ass. Kissing ass was never my strong suit. If you don't want to kiss ass, you gotta get right with the consequences. I've suffered some consequences in my life. Now, since I essentially write my own checks, I get to exercise some free speech without a moonbat lynch mob following me around.

Liberals censure free speech- it has to fit their politically correct standards and it must be pre- approved.

I left Moonbat Valley a little over 5 years ago. I miss my friends and the mountains. Moonbat Valley has become a sort of recreational concentration camp for the liberal elite and I suppose like Mt. Rushmore- once you've been there- there's no point in going back.

How Was It That Not One Sailor Witnessed the Burial of OBL at Sea?

I will be forever pissed but not surprised, that the least transparent President ever- with held the pictures of the great satan, Osama Bin Laden. The American people, those who lost lives and those of us who pay for the military, deserve better than that.

Think Benghazi and all of the President's lies about that. Then there is this, an interesting piece. Why didn't any of the sailors on the ship carrying OBL witness the alleged "burial at sea?" was a secret. It may or may not be true but it should stop and make you think a little.  

"We Sell Bullshit. Sales Are Booming."

Interesting times.

Over the weekend I noted that Black Friday retail sales figures came in poorly. Immediately, the liberal press blamed anonymous sources and stated that sales on Thanksgiving night were to blame.

Always there is something to blame. Maybe, sales sucked because people don't have any money and their collective future doesn't look too bright. Ever stop to think about that, Einstein?

This all stands to reason of course. The greatest bullshitter of all time, the golfer king, was re-elected despite presiding over the worst economic meltdown since 1929. What did he do with the great recession? Well, he completely ignored the problem, blamed his predecessor, and then passed the greatest single tax increase in the history of our country. That same country we grew up in, the one with only 50 states- while our President was growing up in Indonesia.

Wow. And the people of this country- re elected that. That was a watershed moment.

For months I have been waiting for December. The politicians kicked everything past this election (including the implementation of the two year old Obamacare) so that they wouldn't be exposed to the ill effects we will suffer and then get booted out of office. Now the cowards will have to deal with all of the problems- that they alone have created.

Under that scenario, it's almost fitting. The same worthless President and the same worthless Congress are now going to have to come up with another line of bullshit as they kick the spending can again and raise personal taxes just as everyone is forced to buy Obamacare. They will raise the debt ceiling another couple trillion. This is going to get ugly- fast.  

Here's the best part. Don't underestimate these idiots. Identify what might take some courage (like spending cuts and layoffs) and know that those will be the things that they will refuse to do. Identify the most likely chicken shit and face saving scenario and this will, quite predictably, be exactly what they will do.

The politicians and the press are selling bullshit. Sales are booming. Wait until the parties agree to some ridiculous budgetary half measure (tax increases) which will have no real effect. The market will soar.

Not to be outdone, Warren Buffet is looking for sainthood via his brand of bullshit.

The elite government lapdog has renewed his call for tax hikes on the wealthy. Now that he has his tax payer fueled largesse, he wants everyone to give up some of theirs.

Geezus I wish Warren would STFU, write his big check, and go away. I actually see people praising him in comment sections like he is some sort of inspirational saint. These must be the same people that are watching Dancing With the Stars while the rest of us- have been watching Buffet blackmail the government into handing out taxpayer loans- so that he could make billions on Goldman Sachs and Bank of America stock. The transfer of wealth from tax payers to Warren. It really is that simple.

I wish there was some sort of fund or ETF for bullshit. I would be long with calls. Very bullish.

Squish Party Now Backing Tax Hikes

The GOP, the party that stands for nothing, are backing out of spending cuts and backing tax hikes.

What libertarian didn't know that? Aren't ya glad you didn't vote for squish Romney?