I spent a great deal of yesterday learning about commodities and futures, something I have never traded. After yesterday, I am convinced that my decision not to trade in those markets was correct. An entry now would be ridiculous. This is a play I understand from my novice poker days and the proliferation of no-limit Texas Hold 'Em. The Travel Channel kicked off a great boon for all of us old time players- all that fresh blood entering a game we had been playing for 35 years. On line poker, with it's absence of tells and mathematical probabilities easily available for all, worked wonders for new players. In live games, not so much. Same game you would say? No, not at all. In fact, it was the functional equivalent of two entirely different games. On-line poker and live play, (primarily no limit) although based on the same underlying game, are as fundamentally different as trading paper silver and physical silver. It is nuanced. Complex paper trades and traders have a huge advantage over someone like me. It is the function of maturity and experience that allows me say what I am about to say.
Sometimes the best play, is no play. Know when you are outmatched. Your ego will separate you from your money faster than any opponent. This is almost always true.
For a little over two months, I have witnessed some unexplainable events. In fact, I have never felt as detached from reality as I have recently. This is unprecedented stuff. I have never seen anything like it. Inflation figures feverishly manipulated, marginalized, and ignored by Bernanke and the media. Manipulated stock markets, gold and silver markets, bond markets. Metals markets completely suppressed and manipulated by banks. Corporate insiders selling shares faster than stokers on a speeding train. Oil markets completely insane- the spread between West Texas Intermediate Crude and Brent North Sea crude habitually 10 to 15 dollars apart. That has never happened. Silver backwardation has never happened. And that bizarre meeting between Hillary Clinton and virtually every ambassador we have worldwide. What the fuck was that all about? I read the "official" account and quite honestly I think it is bullshit. Personally, I think that meeting was called to warn ambassadors of the pending unrest and chaos that is coming everywhere.
A few days ago, I wrote a piece on the law of unintended consequences. What we are witnessing is an incredible worldwide conspiracy by governments and bankers to keep the lid on a pressure cooker that is about to explode. The world is driven by un backed, worthless, fiat currency. Everywhere. Make no mistake about it. The stakes are unbelievably enormous, the worldwide banks have their fingers in everything. They will lie, cheat, and steal to retain their power and income in any available market or fiat ridden country.
You cannot trust the mainstream media. They feed us fluff. They are owned and co-opted by the same corporate governance and financing that is working feverishly to put lipstick on this pig.
Should you be fearful? No. But you should be prepared. The downside of preparation for an event that does not occur is minimal. Perhaps a little capital loss and your ego gets bruised. (think New Year's Eve, 1999) The upside potential for preparation is enormous. Your ability to survive and thrive will be directly proportional to your willingness to think through what the world will look like when this mess winds down. I am talking about economic collapse and the period of time that it will take to bounce back. The dollar as worthless currency. Zimbabwe style.
People that predict the end of the world are idiots. They have been wrong forever. Therein lies the problem. Predicting when such an event will occur is impossible, because all kinds of unforeseen forces and events can intervene and prolong it. People have a herd mentality. They think because something has never happened that it cannot occur. My favorite is the myth that real estate always goes up. I had been told that shit my entire life. I dismissed the warnings of a drunken friend that told me that there was going to be a banking collapse in '07. That had never happened before and he was drunk. His information was highly credible, but I made the mistake of dismissing it as loose talk- I judged the credibility not on the subject matter but on the speaker. I did however, move my money into bonds. Had I shorted those crooked bankers, well I might not be here writing.
So who are you going to trust? The media or your lying eyes? Trust your instincts. My instincts are telling me we are headed for a train wreck. My eyes will be glued to the economic reports this week. I expect the government and the media to do what they do best. Distract all attention from the truth and spin everything happy. There is no such thing as a jobless, housing-less, counterfeit, spend your way out of debt recovery. It will not work no matter how desperately they want you to believe it. When markets collapse, the speed will be breathtaking.
This morning I read a great piece that did a little to clear up some of the mystery I've been feeling. Particularly in manipulated precious metals, oil, and other commodity markets. The world is moving away from the dollar. Perhaps, we should be too. http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2011/02/important-commentarymubarak.html