Saturday, December 31, 2011

Frankendamus' Surefire Predictions for 2012

Was 2011 happy for you? Remember people spouting that a year ago today? What exactly is a happy new year?? I'm not sure I've ever had a whole happy year. I had a real shitty year once. 1987. I remember it well.

I left a party early tonight. I just wasn't feeling all that festive. That's how it is for me nowadays. In the old days, I hung out in the casino on New Year's and kissed every drunken woman around me. That was kind of fun, but alas those days are over...

It's time once again for the 2012 Frankendamus predictions. With incredible insight and accuracy, you can be sure of one thing. The country never lets me down. So here we go...

WAR

The United States has developed a new war economy. That is what we are good at. The GOP and the right love war. They will tell you it is necessary. We don't care about lost lives or humanity so much any more, we care about money. http://costofwar.com/en/  So with Iraq winding down, we have to find some place other than the eternal Afghanistan war to waste money and resources on. That somebody will be Iran. They are trying to provoke shit. They have a lot of muscle. China says they will protect them no matter what. Iran might finally be the "flashpoint." I consider Iran to be the absolute biggest concern of the entire new year. They and their friends don't care for us too much. It will be fun to see whether the dunderhead in office can avoid another conflict before elections. We will not get in a war with Iran unless Israel provokes it. Then all bets are off.

OBAMACARE

Obamacare will not pass the muster of the Supreme Court. It's just too fucked up in it's entirety. At the end of the day, all of those Harvard grads will send it back. Unlike the idiots who passed it, the court may actually read the bill. That should be enough. Even they have a conscience. 

PRESIDENTIAL AND CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS

Mitt Romney is the chosen elitist. He was picked by the established status quo. Now that the bankers have all escaped jail, it's time to get back to business as usual. The country will elect Romney. He is seen as the least scary guy by both parties. You can rest assured he will suck and be just as bad as Obama. And I will refuse to read Ace of Spades for the next four years as they defend every stupid fucking thing the GOP does.

In Congress, anybody with an (I) by their name is toast. Unless they are from Mexifornia. There will be a few sporadic exceptions. California has proven that not only have liberals ruined the state finances but that the voters are happy about their impending bankruptcy. They will keep doing what they do best- voting for idiots and seeking largesse.

THE EURO AND THE EUROZONE

Completely screwed. Nothing will get better. The FED will buy the 300 billion dollars worth of Italian debt coming due in Februrary. That's why they got involved already. Germany will have to leave the EU and the whole mess will come crashing down. The euro is kaput. I just don't know when.

JAPAN AND THE YEN

Completely screwed.

The UNITED STATES ECONOMY AND THE STOCK MARKET

We are completely screwed too- but we have a crooked FED with a printing press in an election year.
The U.S. economy is dead money. Government generated stats from the BLS will be even more fraudulent than usual. The government will continue to lie about inflation and unemployment as Obama does his best to retain his country club membership. Unfortunately, the man with 5 mansions is coming to reel him in.

All of this could be behind us- if we had just let those crooked banks fail. President Hank Paulson failed us. See Iceland for an example of what happens when a country lets insolvent banks fail. Winning.

The stock market will go down. It has to. The only way it can remain high is if the FED starts another round of quantitative easing. If QE3 starts, the market will rise. Watch gold and silver go parabolic.

GOLD, SILVER, AND OIL

All three will be vastly higher this year. With QE3, I have gold near 2400, oil at 150, and silver at 75. Ten percent lower than these levels absent QE3. The silver fundamentals are absolutely fantastic. In fact, it might be the greatest trade of my lifetime in terms of surefire bets. The world needs silver, supplies are virtually non existent. Silver at these price levels is a steal. I bought more (physical of course) on Friday.

THE MAYAN PROPHECY

There might be a polar shift. The Mayans nailed everything else. Why not?


DEUS EX MACHINA (The Summary)

Deus... Ex... Mach ee naw refers to the playwrights in history who lacking an imaginative or well thought out ending for a play they had written...simply invoked some God driven miracle to wrap things up with. So I will too. Happy New Year!

Sixteen Days of Hell

To be followed by 25 more.

On Dec. 15, I stuffed all 278 pounds of me into my size 36 Wranglers for the last time. Those are some really tough pants. They very nearly cut me in half that day. I have gained 40 lbs. since I quit smoking a year ago. That's hardly a novelty- having heard that same story from every ex smoker on the planet.

At any rate, using a "come-a-long" winch to put my pants on is the kind of thing that motivates me. Instantly, that day, I began the diet from hell.

I did not give two shits that Christmas was coming up. When I get determined to do something, nothing stops me. I thwarted cookies, fudge, chocolate, bread, egg nog. So today, I stepped on the scale at the gym. Exactly where I want to be, 262 lbs. I have lost a pound a day.

It has not been easy. I forget how much my version of the Atkin's diet on steroids sucks.

This is a typical day for me. A glass of V-8 juice, my prescription and vitamins. Go to the gym and burn 700 calories, about 4 miles worth of work. Come home and eat a salad. I make ginormous salads. A few hours later I have something like 3 brats with cheese and sauerkraut. Some nuts or pork rinds for a snack. Lots of water. I buy the carbonated stuff. Day after miserable day.

No carbs. No cookies, no bread, no fruit, no oatmeal. Then kill myself at the gym. As I write this- every part of me is sore except my ears. And my hair.

I don't know if I can live through this shit again. I'll tell you what a nut job I am. I am actually thinking of extending this a week through the end of the month if I haven't lost my original goal of 50 lbs.

Being healthy sucks. I should have just bought a bigger pair of pants. Maybe some smokes.

Thursday, December 29, 2011

The Absent Volume Metals Melt Down and Conspiracy

If the bankers didn't have an MF Global bankruptcy they would have needed to manufacture one anyway. This is the kind of thing that will turn you into a conspiracy nut. The precious metals slaughter continues. I have a theory.

I'd like to turn your attention to one of the biggest banking crooks there is, JP Morgan. In fact, it is primarily JP Morgan that shorts the silver market- selling virtually unlimited puts. Please read this quick story. http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-12-21/wall_street/30541472_1_mf-global-vulture-customer-money

Now let me explain my theory and premise about the metals markets. First of all, as Turd Ferguson notes, the rush into the dollar and out of the euro has strengthened the dollar. Obviously there is an inverse relationship between fiat money and real money. The dollar against gold and silver. When the dollar strengthens, the metals trend down. When the dollar is printed and inflated- thus weakened- the metals take off. So we have that scenario. But then it gets interesting.

I am going to try and paint my version of the big picture here. I will also invite my friends to add to or make corrections if need be.

Thousands of commodity traders and customers of MF Global lost access to their money which was on deposit with MF Global when MF Global went bankrupt on Oct 31. Since then, anyone trading futures in any kind of commodity via MF Global was forced to stop. Their funds were stolen.http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/12/28/mf-global-scrutinized-on-moving-of-money/

Now the lawsuits have started. This is because there are multiple claims on the finite assets of MF Global. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-12/hsbc-sues-mf-global-brokerage-over-850-000-worth-of-gold.html We know that MF Global hijacked at least 200 million and gave it to JP Morgan in advance of the bankruptcy.  How convenient. Now people are lining up to sue.

Rehypothecation is a practice that occurs principally in the financial markets, where a bank or other broker-dealer reuses the collateral pledged by its clients as collateral for its own borrowing. So client funds, including physical assets were frozen and seized because bankers had priority claims. Claims on the money and assets of depositors at MF Global. Is that possible? Yes. It is a fantastic fraud, one which demands that MF Global CEO Jon Corzine be put in jail. But being the elite and connected bastard that he is (Obama's  top campaign bundler) all that Corzine has done is spew a few lies and evade a few questions. He walks free with his 100's of millions in personal assets I might add. This after testifying in that Congressional dog and pony show designed to make it look like some measure of due diligence is taking place.

In the meantime, since Oct 31...metals markets have taken a complete dive. Why? Who the fuck wants to deposit money with a commodity broker and trade paper metals knowing that your money can be legally stolen from you? Here is Ann Barnhardt's site. http://barnhardt.biz/ She closed shop as a clearing agent because she could no longer guarantee customer funds... although she primarily cleared cattle futures. In Colorado. Lots to like about Ann.

This is a market with no buyers. Nobody is going to catch a falling knife. The bankers are having their bankers holiday- selling gold and silver contracts and covering short positions. I wish that were the end of this story but there is one more piece. Paper still drives the physical price of metals. For now.

Position limits. In the coming weeks, futures speculators (like big banks) were going to be regulated. They no longer could issue an infinite number of contracts on underlying commodities regardless of available supply. In other words, big speculators (read banks again) were losing significant leverage- leverage that they had used to manipulate markets. Position limits regulations are already under fire and headed to court. Read the last paragraph here: http://www.cftclaw.com/2011/10/cftc-finalizes-position-limits/

Bottom line. The metals markets are broken. There are no buyers. The price is almost straight down and the volume is non existent. It makes sense to me in light of what I have conveyed here today. Who benefits? The bankers. As always. Time and time again, they show us who runs the markets. They have a bought and paid for Congress and President. In a square game, you might stand a chance. This game is so hopelessly crooked with a deck stacked against you that you are an idiot if you sit down to play. I am talking about paper markets. This is a necessary piece of the end game.

Where will this slide end? I'm not sure. This is getting really ugly. There is absolutely no integrity or even an illusion of integrity left in markets. Our country is breaking down on so many levels, that it is hard to fathom.

I am going to take one last significant stab at adding to physical metals soon. I am expecting a tremendous, hard reversal this year. The world is still bankrupt. However,  I have no illusions that the crooked bankers won't try anything and everything within their power to maintain control over markets and us. They have demonstrated that to me in ample fashion over these past two months. If I wasn't a conspiracy theorist before then- I certainly am now.

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Frankenstein Government Endorses The Only Candidate With No Visible Skeletons In His Closet (Yet)... Libertarian Gary Johnson

I've been following former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson for a couple of years now. He is the only conservative that makes sense. I have always liked Johnson better than Paul but unfortunately Johnson was wasting time with the GOP nomination. Johnson is a huge anti tax guy and I don't know of any scandals. He has 6 more years worth of experience running a state than Ms. Palin does and he didn't quit. In fact, he left it with a one billion dollar surplus. Can a third party candidate win?

Getting the Frankenstein Government endorsement will be a huge boost to Gary's campaign. 

Here's the wiki entry on former Governor "Veto" which all by itself makes him an anti-government and electable sort of guy. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_Johnson

Here's a quick 5 page thumbnail sketch on Gary. http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/2011/0421/Election-101-Who-is-Gary-Johnson/Who-is-he-anyway

The typical mainstream whine goes like this. He will take votes away from both of the rich and elite supported candidates. The GOP will say Johnson hurts them the most- like they have anything to offer. No third party candidate can win. The elites that run this country will do everything in their power to see that no third party candidate will ever win the Presidency thus ensuring that our country will continue on the same course of banker enrichment and collapse.

Ya know what I am tired of? Replacing a shitty President with a slightly less shitty President. I'd like to elect a good one sometime. Just once.

Johnson doesn't like wars and booze. He doesn't think marijuana is a big deal. He earned his own money and he's not a lawyer. What's not to like? (I have always secretly wanted to drug test Obama and back in the day, Clinton)

We are on the verge of completely losing this country to illegal immigration, Obamacare, and an insurmountable debt. Anyone that believes that the answer to our problems has anything to do with our two main parties- the same parties that have created all of our problems- may need a road map, history lesson, or a therapist. I have never seen a worse crop of potential GOP nominees nor have I seen a worse sitting President.

If not now, when?

Hank "Won't Guam Tip Over?" Johnson Wants To Eliminate Debt Ceiling Altogether, Finds It Un-Necessary

I snipped this paragraph from the previous piece. This is rocket scientist, Hank Johnson, from Georgia.

-Four House Democrats have introduced a bill to eliminate the statutory cap on the public debt. “There’s no reason to have a debt ceiling at all,” said one of the four, Representative Hank Johnson of Georgia. “It doesn’t restrain spending, since the spending has already been committed. It just threatens our credit, and it weakens our country.”

It weakens our country? Like Guam? Maybe a weak country inverts, huh Hank? This video of Hank on Guam will live in infamy. How did this moron ever get elected?

Did the Mayans Practice Boola Boola?

This will make sense. I think.

Three missionaries got lost during a trip to the Amazon jungle. They were captured by a brutal native tribe. The Chief gave each man a choice. "Death or Boola Boola" The first missionary feared death and figured anything was better than death so he chose "Boola Boola." "Boola Boola!" cried the Chief, as he thrust his spear into the air. The tribesmen all lined up and sodomized the poor missionary leaving him brutalized but alive. The second missionary, who also feared death, was a little less enthusiastic than the first missionary. "Boola Boola" he muttered weakly. Once again the Chief thrust his spear into the air and yelled "Boola Boola!" That missionary was left in the same state as the first one. The third missionary was the proudest of the trio. He was pure and defiant. When the Chief gave him a choice, "Death or Boola Boola" the third missionary straightened up and looked the Chief right in the eye."I choose death" he said. Immediately, the Chief turned to the tribe, thrust his spear in the air, and yelled, "Death by Boola Boola!" 

I have had this year (2012) on my radar for years. I can't wait. Here's why.

Obama is going to start the new year out right by asking for another 1.2 trillion debt ceiling hike- adding to an insurmountable debt which there is no way in hell we are ever going to pay back. How can I be so sure? At 100% debt to GDP ratios, historically, all nations stagnate and fail. It's game over. Maybe if we had the capacity (jobs) to turn back the debt like we had in post WW2. But we don't. Need current proof? Look at the Japanese who have been dead in the water since 1989 with a debt to GDP ratio that exceeds 200%. Have they paid back any of that debt they owe? Nyet. That mess of theirs is exactly like that mess of ours. Here is a glimpse of our future. http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-27/japan-factory-output-falls-on-global-slump.html

I'll tell you how silly our leaders are. They probably figure they have at least another 15 trillion to spend before we double down and reach that 200% mark the Japanese have set. Obamacare will get us there like a rocket ship. Maybe in a year or two.

I think there is at least a 60% chance of deep recession this year. Another bout of deflation. The FED will print more money to try and stop deflation and then we will get the hyperinflation that gold bugs like me are praying for. Not just the real 8-9% inflation that we have been suffering through. We are going to get the mother of all inflation. I think it would be quite fitting if Obama was still in office to see the fruits of his labors.

Not to mention some more crazy ass weather events. Polar bears on the Santa Monica pier.

Five years ago, I read up on that whole Mayan bak'tun history. I even checked out books at the library. I studied everything I could get my hands on or watch on tv. My conclusion? Nothing is going to happen. Sadly, the apocalypse appears to be bullshit. But there are some bright spots.

I'll tell you how optimistic I am. I like our chances of having and suffering through a Mayan apocalypse far better than our chances of paying back this 16.4 trillion dollar debt. We might be better off with the quick death rather than the slow one. Kind of like the deal the Chief handed out to those missionaries.

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Obama To Ask For Another 1.2 Trillion Debt Ceiling Hike to 16.4 Trillion

Outrageous left the building in late 2008. Completely bat shit crazy took it's place. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/28/us/politics/obama-to-ask-for-1-2-trillion-increase-in-debt-limit.html

Seriously, does anyone think we are going to pay this back?

Confessions of a U-Sixer

I am a happy member of the U-6. http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp

It had been 80 years since the bankers plunged us into a depression. I suppose we were over due. The bankers lobbied hard and bought the best politicians they could in order to get the controls lifted. It worked. Maybe this time would be different, the bankers thought.

The only thing different this time around is our abject failure to collectively call this what it is. In 1929 we called it the Great Depression. This time we call it the Great Recession. The only difference is that we haven't re-installed the controls. Or plotted a solution. It is a mess. And we have an idiot for a leader. "President Talks a Good Game" but never brings one.

So here I am. A grain of sand on the beach. Mr. U-6.

Call me a pessimist but I always plan for the worst possible outcome. That is to say, when I buy equities, silver, a house, or a car I always ask, "What is the worst thing that could happen?" And then I say, "Can I live with that outcome?"

It works on virtually everything. I exclude death in most instances.

Now I got home late last night. After all of the unpacking, I got on line. I looked at the usual dearth of jobs. Ohhh, they are shitty. They pay poorly and they offer no benefits. I have been doing this, on and off, for 3 years.

In fact, most jobs are simply not resume' worthy. Sometimes I mull over actually applying for one of those crappy 9 dollar an hour jobs. And then I don't. This is how the brain of a simpleton works.

Really crappy jobs are easy to find. Those are the ones that are open. Usually they involve submitting yourself to some humiliating form of punishment called employment. In the old days, we just came to work and worked at a somewhat leisurely pace. Those days are gone. Now you must work at a frenetic pace and often for chump change, receive no benefits, and take orders from some moron. Or be openly exploited.

Most of the time, I just can't do it. I value my freedom far more than that. I am the U-6.

I feel sorry for anyone exiting college with a tuition mortgage and entering this workplace. We passed an anti slavery law years ago. The trick now is to lure young workers into slavery voluntarily- that way nobody gets charged. You promise students' jobs if only they will pony up and get an expensive degree. Then when they exit school they will be offered some entry level job that pays peanuts from which they are supposed to pay rent, utilities, groceries, 400 dollars a month for a car and insurance. Those 4 things in Boise, a cheap place to live, will cost you a net 1700 a month. Throw in that 300-500 dollar a month tuition loan payment and we quickly arrive at 2200 a month. Another 300 a month for a high deductible health insurance policy and there you are. You need 2500 a month net money per month just to get by. Of course the government on multiple levels- is there to get their cut of your money. It will be many years before this gets any better. It will probably get far worse.

We are creating the future U-6.

Over the weekend, I think I found a way to make money writing by a person that makes money writing. The trick, as always, is to cut out the gatekeepers, filters, and middle men. Remove obstructions from free markets and amazingly enough you get- free markets. I think that's how it's going to be in this new U-6 economy. Find unconventional ways to make a living by becoming your own boss.

That's my New Year's resolution. Give up on the idea that I must find some crappy job and create one of my own with hours I like. With a boss that really cares about me.

I am a happy member of the U-6. Things could be worse. I could have a job.