Friday, August 27, 2010

Walking Eagle

President BARACK OBAMA was invited to address a major gathering of the American Indian Nation two weeks ago in upstate New York .
>
> He spoke for an hour about his plans for increasing every Native American's present standard of living. He referred to his time as a U.S. Senator and how he had voted for every Native American issue that came to the floor of the Senate.
>
> Although President Obama was vague about the details of his plans, he seemed most enthusiastic and spoke eloquently about ideas for helping his "red sisters and brothers."
>
> At the conclusion of his speech, the Tribes presented Obama with a plaque inscribed with his new Indian name, "Walking Eagle." The proud President then departed in his motorcade to a fundraiser, waving to the crowds.
>
> A news reporter later asked the group of chiefs how they selected the new name they had given to the President.
>
> They said "Walking Eagle" is the name given to a bird so full of shit it can no longer fly.

Thursday, August 26, 2010

Governor Christie Addresses Frankenstein Government

This is how intelligent people behave.

Behold a "good" politician. Take notes Obama and Congress. This dude doesn't talk hope and change, he BRINGS it.


Alan Simpson is a Dumb Ass

Wyoming's finest.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- An advocacy group is calling for the ouster of former Sen. Alan Simpson, the co-chairman of President Obama's bipartisan debt commission, who described Social Security as a "milk cow with 310 million tits!" in an email.

I don't like politicians. And I sure as hell don't like politicians that steal my money for 35 years and then refer to me as some sort of infant or weanling. Like I needed or wanted their tit to begin with. Only in Amerikka can they create laws to steal from you and then call you names for complying with them. Like we invented this shit to begin with.

You know where to find me Alan. And before it's over, the only tit you will be sucking- may be one of two that you are very familiar with.

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

The Three Stages of Veritas

The truth. First it is ridiculed, then it is violently opposed, then it is accepted as self evident.

We are finally entering stage 3. Not that any of us will take any satisfaction from being right- we are simply scratching our heads wondering what took you people so long.

After more horrible stock market news today, (durable goods and new home sales) many of us are in absolute awe that the market has not tanked an appropriate couple hundred more points. This leads to one of the last great truths. The stock market is being manipulated. Clearly.

Don't buy in. I'm not even sure if I put or short the market, that there will be any money to pay me with or whether it will be worth anything, anyway...

Really.

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

The Real Debt, Not That Lowball Garbage MSNBC Drones Cough Up

Today our reported National Debt is $13.362 TRILLION. This is the first big lie. There are two entities named Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that happen to be 80% owned by the US government. Anyone who thinks these two companies can operate without the backing of the US Government are delusional. The US taxpayer is on the hook for these two disastrously run companies. Somehow, government accounting doesn’t require their debt to be considered the responsibility of the US taxpayer. This is a fraud, pure and simple. Their debt is our debt.

According to their latest 10Q filed in early August (links below), their debts are:
  • Fannie Mae: $3.257 Trillion
  • Freddie Mac: $2.345 Trillion

The true National Debt of the United States is $18.964 Trillion. Therefore, our debt as a percentage of GDP is really 130%. This is beyond the level reached during World War II. We are no longer the manufacturer to the world. We are the consumer to the world. The country adds $4 Billion per day to the National Debt. Our GDP is stagnanting with future growth no better than 2% being realistic.

Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart, after analyzing data over 200 years throughout the world, have concluded that once debt reaches 90% of GDP, a tipping point is reached. Crisis and collapse will ensue.


Bernanke "The Hammer" and His Big Mistake

Trying to predict human behavior is impossible. In fact, often when you think you are doing someone else a favor, they give you a middle finger and walk away.

Ben never considered that possibility. Because Ben ASSUMED he understood history and human behavior when in fact...he doesn't know jackshit about either.

Briefly, let me explain. In 2002 before the Fed Board of Governors, Ben the self proclaimed expert of the Great Depression thought he knew how to stem the four years of rapid deflation that occurred from 1929 to 1933. Avoid deflation by printing gobs of money. That in fact worked and by the time the US entered the WWII, the Depression was gone.

So Ben though he had the answer. Print money. Drop it from helicopters. Inflate the economy was his answer. That was Ben's answer to what he would do in a similar situation and that's what he told the Board of Governors that day. The Governors ASSUMED that Ben knew what he was talking about. They gave him great credibility. Where did Ben go wrong?

Ben assumed incorrectly, that if you dropped money from helicopters that people would bend over and pick it up. That assumption is turning out to be quite false as evidenced by the lowest housing prices, the best mortgage rates in in half a century, and the biggest drop in existing home sales in decades.

Ok, so where did Ben go wrong? When the US availed themselves of the gold standard in 1933 to print money...a dollar was still worth a dollar. It had VALUE. People believed this. In the intervening 80 years- the Fed has inflated the dollar to the extent that it is essentially valueless. And just because you drop shit paper from your helicopter, leaflets, doesn't mean anybody is going to pick them up. The world changed. And only the dumb asses and the desperate will fall for the ploy. Ben assumed the same trick would work twice. Wrong.

We are broke Ben. Everybody knows this. Everybody knows the leaflets are valueless. A few of us are still happy that the majority of you assclowns are still accepting the leaflets as a medium of exchange. We are busying buying things of tangible value, buying silver and gold on the dips, and preparing for financial Armageddon. And it will take a miracle to rescue us. This from a government that has proven time and time again that they view every problem the same way, like a nail...and thus every solution requires a hammer. It's time to saw wood Ben...and you ain't got the tools to get 'er done.

Sunday, August 22, 2010

Screwing the Pooch

Screwing the pooch is a colorful phrase, the origins of which may or may not be the military. What the phrase describes is a situation that you cannot take back or undo.

Financially and economically, the USA has screwed the pooch. We cannot undo what we have done. And all that remains is a slow and agonizing financial death. How bad will it get? Very bad.

Many things have had to happen historically to arrive at the place where we are today. The key component occurred in 1913 when the Federal Reserve System was given life. The elimination of the gold standard a few decades later. Then greed and power took over.

The last great act of attrition was NAFTA. That act allowed greedy corporate America to find slave labor in markets that paid less than a buck an hr. And all of our manufacturing left. And all of our money left to buy good in those slave labor markets.

Walmart is simply an outlet store for China.

Greedy corporate America could not do this without the help of the US government. That we have had a bunch of idiots running this country for so long is beyond question. That it is populated by "degreed" men, many of them lawyers, speaks to the insanity of our culture. We actually bought off on the premise that somehow these men and women with their college degrees and credentials knew what they were doing. That they were smarter than us. We were wrong.

Thus we will face a slow and agonizing death. The first major shock occurred in 2008. There will be more to follow. The Federal Reserve, the same bank that issues government debt in the form of bonds, is now the chief entity buying those bonds. Why? Because the US is broke, the world is broke, and there is nobody else to buy that enormous debt that we refinance each year. It is the equivalent of buying stuff on a VisaCard and using a Mastercard to pay the bill each month.

How long can the FED keep up this charade? I don't know. I think the end will come via inflation after an exploding bond bubble. Bond yields are ridiculously low, courtesy of the bazillions of investors searching out any kind of yield and flocking into US treasurys. That market will implode soon just as the housing market did.

The government screwed this pooch. That they have screwed up everything that they have ever laid their hands on should be no surprise. With no jobs, there are no taxes. With no taxes, there can be no revenue to pay off debt.

It is as simple as that. Barring an economic miracle, an act our current leader and Congress are absolutely incapable of performing, we are doomed. The reason they won't do what is needed has to do with lifespan. This country is dying a slow death. They will be able to vacate their seats long before the total collapse occurs. Maybe. They are not concerned with the health of this country. They are only concerned about themselves. And most of them will be heading for the exits when it happens. Blaming Bush and others. Completely frozen in the headlights like deer. So what will the future look like?

Jobs and the capacity to bring them back, gone. Tax cuts for everyone, gone. Medicare and Social Security gone. The stock market and bond markets will implode. Government will try to freeze private and public investments. Your retirement accounts, bankrupt. Maybe force you into buying bonds or raise the penalties to such a degree that your money is essentially locked up and seized. The dollar will implode.

Of course they will do these things incrementally. There is already talk of SS and Medicare elimination. There is talk of forcing private 401k investment into US treasurys.

There is one very interesting example of a completely bankrupt government surviving. Japan. But they don't sell bonds to the world like we do. A completely broke world that lacks the capacity to buy them. The net buyers of bonds are going to lose their money.

So there's not much point in talking about this anymore. It's too late. We have screwed the pooch and there's not a damn thing we can do about it. We have a slight window, maybe only a year or two, but our vacationing President and Congress- like all the others before him- are too scared and unwilling to save the Republic. I'm not even sure they recognize this imminent threat. A couple more trillion in debt and interest is all it will take. Just a year or two more of that accumulation and we will be completely past the point of return. Our leaders, who are not leaders at all, simply lack the vision and courage that it will take to wrest our way of life from an ever widening debt abyss. I have seen nothing to encourage me thus far and that includes the mid term elections in Nov. Throwing the existing idiots out and replacing them with fresh idiots will not work. It hasn't worked yet.

The Hindenburg Omen

From Wiki on the Hindenburg Omen

Conclusions

From historical data, the probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was 77%, and usually takes place within the next forty days. The probability of a panic sellout was 41% and the probability of a major stock market crash was 24%. Though the Omen does not have a 100% success rate, every NYSE crash since 1985 has been preceded by a Hindenburg Omen. Of the previous 25 confirmed signals only two (8%) have failed to predict at least mild (2.0% to 4.9%) declines.

Because of the specific and seemingly random nature of the Hindenburg Omen criteria, the phenomenon may be simply a case of overfitting. That is, by backtesting through a large data set with many different variables, correlations can be found that don't really have predictive significance. The Omen is at best an imperfect technical indicator that is a work in progress.

[edit] Recent occurrences

  • August 20, 2010: There were 3,143 NYSE issues traded, with 83 New Highs and 95 New Lows. The McClellan Oscillator was negative.
  • August 19, 2010: A first confirmation of Hindenburg Omen occurred (following the August 12, 2010 unconfirmed occurrence). That day 137 new highs and 69 new lows were recorded (2.2% of issues traded), and the new highs number was not more than double the new lows (although it was close). McClellan oscillator was negative at -83.6, and the 10 week moving average rose, which were the two remaining conditions. It should be noted that some market observers are saying that this cluster should not count as a valid signal because many of the issues hitting new lows are closed-end funds rather than ordinary stocks.
  • August 12, 2010: An unconfirmed Hindenburg Omen occurred, the first since the market lows of 2009. One nearly occurred on August 11, but only 67 stocks hit new lows, less than 2.2% of issues traded.
There have been 50 billion in 401k withdrawals in the last 16 weeks. Bankruptcy running at all time high highs. Commercial write downs are enormous, banks using voodoo accounting methods to avoid booking losses. Our debt, and world debt, at astronomical levels.

Folks this is not the time to be invested in the stock market. I believe a crash to the 6500 level is possible. If you have discretionary cash that you would not like to lose, get out now. Please.

If you wanna take a chance- index puts and shorts is the place to be. But not long. Not long anything.

While the Hindenburg Omen is not precisely perfect, would you rather run with a 77% chance or risk your wealth on a 23% chance that nothing will happen in a market that cannot go up? You should know that in May 2007, I folded up my "long tent" and parked everything in bonds. We know how that turned out.