Monday, January 7, 2013

No "BS" Today, Today We Talk About the Big Game*Updated

* Wow. Nothing like feeling like a moron. Notre Dame looked damn good until they started the game. Thank God this nasty snowstorm prevented me from going to Nevada and betting it. God looks out for fools and idiots.

Bama 42- and Notre Dame 14. It was horrible right from the very beginning.

Damn... I get tired of talking about crooked bankers, politicians, and zombie markets all the time. Thankfully, we have a wonderful distraction today. The Notre Dame v Alabama title tilt.

Professional gamblers are those who derive a certain amount of income and not losses- from their gambling activities. That is my definition of professional gambling. It is hard to do this.

For many years, I was able to make money gambling.  One of the problems with living in Boise and gambling is that mostly- it is illegal here. I try to do things legally. There are a number of my friends here who use local bookies. I don't do that mainly because I just don't care about gambling as passionately as I once did.

They have a saying in horse racing. You can beat a race, but you cannot beat the races. That is true in every gambling endeavor. You must pick your spots. You certainly cannot play every hand you are dealt in poker, you cannot play every horse race, and you cannot bet every game. Doing so would have you bankrupt- post haste. So you carve out a niche or two, angles that you like, and then you wait for the opportunity to exploit your angles. Which brings us to tonite's game. One of the best gambling opportunities of the year. I am going to break it down for you.

Tonight Alabama is a 9.5 or 10 point favorite against Notre Game (my name) in the NCAA Championship.

Alabama hails from the mighty SEC. The SEC is currently an over rated football conference. It is hard to argue that the best football teams have consistently come from the south simply because they tend to have better and stronger athletes. However, with today's recruiting efforts, a lot of that talent gets recruited elsewhere. I think their talent pool has been depleted. That curve has been flattening out slowly over time. 

I am going to talk schedule strength and intangibles here. But first a little math. I am also going to disclose an angle that has almost always guaranteed betting success. 

Only about 32% of ten point spreads (double digit) or better are covered by the favorite. Sometimes teams don't even score ten points. Never ever take a double digit favorite when there is a remote possibility of two good defenses showing up. I learned that lesson the hard way. I only take double digit favorites when there is at least one terrible or non existent defense, a fair amount of offense, or when one team has thrown in the towel on the season. If all three of those things present, I will consider taking a fav and giving up the points. Mostly I just refuse to bet favorites with double digit spreads. I actually look for good dogs in those situations.

That makes Notre Dame a huge favorite to cover this spread.

Secondly, let's talk schedule strength. Notre Dame played 5 or 6 ranked opponents this year. They had a horribly tough schedule. They remained undefeated. Alabama had kind of a cupcake schedule. They played a lot of marginal teams. They lost to a Texas A and M team- although that team has turned out to be much better team than I originally thought. 

Again the edge goes to Notre Dame.

The two intangibles that make Notre Dame a must bet. Notre Dame finds a way to win. I saw that in the Pittsburgh game. Notre Dame should have lost that game. I think they have better athleticism which will make them more adaptable to varying circumstances.

My favorite angle? Never ever insult an undefeated team- a team that has played a horribly tough schedule- by hanging such a big losing number around their necks. That pisses teams off. It motivates them. They have nothing to lose.

Huge edge- Notre Dame

The bet.

I give Notre Dame an 85 to 90% chance of covering the spread. I give them a 55% chance to win the game out right. Under these conditions, I make two bets.

I start with one thousand. I bet 770 dollars on the spread. Winning that bet returns the bet plus 700 for a total of 1470.

I take the other 200 and bet it on the money line at +270. Each hundred gets 270 or 540 total plus your bet back for a total of 740. 

With the other 30, I would buy a nice steak and watch the game. Rib eye, medium.

Hit both bets and make 2210 dollars. Hit the spread only and you still net win 470. 

One last thing. I absolutely love this game in terms of gambling and as a fantastic game to watch. If it weren't snowing here today and I could zip down to Reno- you can bet your ass I'd have this game covered exactly the way I have described here. I can hardly wait to see it.




Anonymous said...

Medium rare at the most

Dave said...

Well, I have to agree with you.. It was agreat game to watch. The great Notre Dame with their own network (NBC, figures) getting pounded relentlessly by the evil Alabama Crimson Tide. I'm not a fan of them either, but watching Notre Dame getting punched in the mouth reinforced my belief in a higher power.

Anonymous said...

Thought about you after opening Fox news and seeling how Bama beat the spread. Your logic was good but Notre Dame forgot to show up.

Brian said...

Ouch. Yesterday, I actually thought about trying to get to Jackpot to bet. That would have been a double disaster.
I thought of you Dave while writing this piece- you being a big Irish fan and all..

Unknown said...

Why is it that only in the South did we know what was going to happen. The rest of you actually believed the Irish stood a chance.

Brian said...

I don't know Dave. Maybe it was because I watched both teams play all year.

I didn't see Bama as this unstoppable force...nor did A and M. The problem with sticking your neck out like I do- before the game- is that I have to live with the consequences while everyone else says...I told ya so.

Ok so where is your blog extolling a great 28 point bama win?

Heh. I thought so. You'll note I didn't take the blog down. Losing and me are old friends.