Well for those of you who haven't been watching, silver gained 30% in a month. Gold is hitting all time highs. And as usual, the idiots on CNBC and Chairsatan, just can't understand why. So much bullshit- so little time.
BTFD is a moniker for "buy the fucking dip."
Gold and silver have an inverse relationship to our worthless currency. The more Bernanke is forced to print and devalue the currency- the higher the demand price will go for gold and silver. Here is my big macro view as simply as I can state it.
Bernanke cannot stop printing. Once he does there will be a stock market implosion. Commodity prices will sink. Keep 25% of your powder dry. If QE is halted in June, hang onto your ass. The market will go into absolute free fall. As commodity prices head down, buy that dip. Until then, just average in. For me, I buy 30 ounces a month. I don't care what the price is.
Here then are the other fundamental reasons for buying gold and silver. I am not going to cite my references unless somebody asks and I will provide the links.
China and India are buying precious metals at an alarming rate. There is significant evidence to suggest that India is going to use silver to mint coins. Citizens of both countries use precious metals to hedge inflation losses. In fact, they are far more aware of this than the typical U.S. dolt. And there are 3 billion of them.
Silver has many industrial applications but my favorite is solar panels. If you need silver for it's vastly superior conductivity in solar panels- would you want to pay 35 or 75 for the metal?
Contrary to the thinking at the FOFOA blog, I think countries may use silver in addition to gold to back currencies. There is simply not enough gold to go around. Every once in awhile I see this mentioned somewhere but I really haven't been able to prove that. It makes sense though. It also makes sense that if a country or government were planning to do such a thing- that they would simply STFU and buy it rather than telegraph their intentions and inflate the price via speculators.
There are only three events which I think could cause significant gold and silver losses. I present them in their most likely chronological fashion. And since I've been making "lines" my whole life in sporting events, here then are my lines.
1. Sudden deflation. I give that scenario less than 5% or a one in twenty chance. Since 42% of the CPI are housing costs and housing is dragging the bottom- I see maybe another 20% downdraft at the absolute maximum (based on Case Schiller) in housing costs as more and more repos flood the market. Most of the deflation case has already been baked in.
2. A stock market implosion. I give this scenario a full 20% chance, or one in five chance, of occurring in the next 6 months. It may actually be starting as of last week. With the deranged and unprecedented "zeroes" printing by the FED- this is particularly bothersome. Because a number of other scenarios could take place simultaneously. Complete dollar devaluation, loss of industrial demand, a really gloomy scenario.This is the most likely negative scenario. I would be buying at the bottom.
3. The government declaring gold and silver possession is illegal. Forcing people to turn in their gold and silver in for worthless fiat or exchanging it for some new currency at a fixed price. More than likely, they would simply try to tax sales and make it unprofitable. I give this scenario another one in twenty chance or about 5%. Get your passports while they are only 151.00.
That leaves a 70%, or 7/10 chance of a continued rise in gold and silver prices. That is my FG line. We have entered a brave new world. A world where the President ignores the rule of law, where a desperate government and ruling banking cabal are not above trying any dirty trick to survive. Here are the new rules. If the banker owned government is trying to force some future compliance down your throat, like Obamacare, you must seriously consider doing the exact opposite. I am not saying that in the spirit of anarchy- I am saying that we have lost control and that we have a rogue government capable of anything at this point. The least of their concerns will be your individual wealth preservation needs- in fact there is no such thing as your money- they think it's all theirs. They just leave you with a few crumbs and call you free men.