The stock market dived to around the 6500 level just a little under a year ago. This was predicated on the banking "crisis." It was probably priced close to fair value at that point.
The move from 6500 to 10,500 was huge. You do the percentage math if you have to.
If I had a dollar for every equity investor, broker, and analyst that said, "the stock market predicts economic activity six months in advance" I could pay off the national debt. Ok, so all you boys and girls can read the same book. Good. So, tell me, where is this big ass economic boom? The big market rally has been on since March yet that was nearly nine months ago...
The answer is, it is a lie. A myth. And it always was.
With the dollar cratering and diluted, with GDP numbers crashing and being manipulated by 8000 dollar housing subsidies, free school money, and "cash for clunkers", there was no real economic pickup. No GDP growth. Politicians trying to manipulate and create an illusion.
Guess what? The illusion is almost over. You simply can't throw free money around forever. Corporate America won't have good quarterly comparisons because all of their fictitious earnings were based on debt and staff reductions. Reduced inventory and overhead. There is no encore performance in 2010. Real numbers are about to emerge. Sickly and weak numbers.
It is as simple as this. The money that has been created in the last nine months has no place to go. It can't buy oil or commodities. It can't make any real return in any asset class including real estate. Or in any bank. Or bonds of a bankrupt US. The stock market acted as the default investment. The only place money could flow. Except for precious metals and foreign lands.
I have never wanted to short a market as badly as this one. Ever. It seems like a lock. Like superhorse Zenyatta in a cheap allowance race. So with the 2010 elections looming and the Democrats about to get their asses kicked badly, I can't wait to see what bullshit spews out of their mouths and the manipulated mouths of people like Geithner and Bernanke.
The big ass economic boom should have been here in Sept. Maybe they postponed it until after X-Mas. But man, can't you just feel it? Ah...well...maybe... not so much.