The Hindenburg Omen

From Wiki on the Hindenburg Omen

Conclusions

From historical data, the probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was 77%, and usually takes place within the next forty days. The probability of a panic sellout was 41% and the probability of a major stock market crash was 24%. Though the Omen does not have a 100% success rate, every NYSE crash since 1985 has been preceded by a Hindenburg Omen. Of the previous 25 confirmed signals only two (8%) have failed to predict at least mild (2.0% to 4.9%) declines.

Because of the specific and seemingly random nature of the Hindenburg Omen criteria, the phenomenon may be simply a case of overfitting. That is, by backtesting through a large data set with many different variables, correlations can be found that don't really have predictive significance. The Omen is at best an imperfect technical indicator that is a work in progress.

[edit] Recent occurrences

• August 20, 2010: There were 3,143 NYSE issues traded, with 83 New Highs and 95 New Lows. The McClellan Oscillator was negative.
• August 19, 2010: A first confirmation of Hindenburg Omen occurred (following the August 12, 2010 unconfirmed occurrence). That day 137 new highs and 69 new lows were recorded (2.2% of issues traded), and the new highs number was not more than double the new lows (although it was close). McClellan oscillator was negative at -83.6, and the 10 week moving average rose, which were the two remaining conditions. It should be noted that some market observers are saying that this cluster should not count as a valid signal because many of the issues hitting new lows are closed-end funds rather than ordinary stocks.
• August 12, 2010: An unconfirmed Hindenburg Omen occurred, the first since the market lows of 2009. One nearly occurred on August 11, but only 67 stocks hit new lows, less than 2.2% of issues traded.

There have been 50 billion in 401k withdrawals in the last 16 weeks. Bankruptcy running at all time high highs. Commercial write downs are enormous, banks using voodoo accounting methods to avoid booking losses. Our debt, and world debt, at astronomical levels.

Folks this is not the time to be invested in the stock market. I believe a crash to the 6500 level is possible. If you have discretionary cash that you would not like to lose, get out now. Please.

If you wanna take a chance- index puts and shorts is the place to be. But not long. Not long anything.

While the Hindenburg Omen is not precisely perfect, would you rather run with a 77% chance or risk your wealth on a 23% chance that nothing will happen in a market that cannot go up? You should know that in May 2007, I folded up my "long tent" and parked everything in bonds. We know how that turned out.

Minority Rule

I saw a photo today of Barney Frank and Chris Dodd. They were standing on the steps of some government building. Both Congressman were instrumental in taking millions of dollars of campaign funds from big banking interests. (That info is available on open secrets.org) They were also instrumental in bailing out banks and bailing out Fannie and Freddie who bought all of those bad loans. Loans which Frank and Dodd helped to create. Everyone got rich except you, little guy. That these two men are morally and ethically bankrupt is without question. That they know no shame and are seeking re-election is also beyond comprehension. Yet, they will undoubtedly evade responsibility and claim innocence. So it is, with my ineptness and my desire never to view their faces, I offer up the caption to that picture.


Dodd: "How'd it go?"
Frank: "Good... the taxpayer took it all without
so much as a whimper. Near the end he even
seemed to be enjoying it."



I don't want to speak for the framers of the Constitution but I feel fairly confident that they never envisioned an America where the vast majority of citizens were marginalized and told to shut up by the minority. That minority being the elite and corporate America, (oligarchs) and their political henchmen. (politicians)

I think when the framers used that phrase, a government for the people and by the people, that they meant or implied the majority of people. So what happened to that majority?

They fell silent. They began to fear discussing politics because they were labeled and branded "stupid" or "uninformed." They feared ugly and personal arguments at parties and social events. They began to fear government. They feared the implied threats of bankruptcy or prison. Of giant defense costs against a bully government that could bring an unlimited budget to the courtroom. And one by one, they fell silent and went away. Marginalized and excluded from the proceedings. Of a voice or an opinion until all that was heard or given credibility were the cries and shouts of the minority.

The minority gained traction. Those "educated" people with degrees and opinions. Willing and able to extract the wealth from those uneducated masses- that majority unable or unwilling to defend themselves. The minority unified and intensified. The majority shunned the minorities willing ness to attack and engage. To personally attack those that disagreed. And thus together- the opinions of the minority were all that mattered anymore.

That zombie majority has just about had enough. One by one, we are waking up. We are beginning to unify and intensify. We are no longer willing or able to stand silent while you give away our work product and threaten us with bankruptcy, prison, or death for lack of health care. And in the end, if it comes to blows, that will have to be the way it is. The oligarchs will die, the politicians will face a bitter future, and that is how it will most certainly end. That is how it always ends.

We swapped a King for this mess. And we saw how that ended. Beware minority, something wicked this way comes.

Don't You Love It When They Claim They Know What's Best For You?

"The smallest minority on earth is the individual. Those who deny individual rights cannot claim to be defenders of minorities." - Ayn Rand

From Federal Judge Susan Bolton to the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, D.O.A.

I think Arizona's immigration law was long over due.

Unfortunately, the people of the United States no longer have a voice. The people have been marginalized to the extent that we are little sheep who only have one duty. We serve government and the elite and for that privilege, they ask us to send in our money. Taxes. That's the definition of being a good citizen. Shut your mouth and send in your money.

We have become slaves. Sure we have a vote, but our vote doesn't matter any more.

I am fucking pissed. I am sick of government telling a majority of it's citizens that you no longer have the right to decide what is best for you. Only government does.

Thus Judge Susan Bolton, a liberal Federal Judge appointed by Bill Clinton, blocked Arizona's law. That Billary Clinton and Barack Obama have many mutual friends and are friends themselves is not a coincidence. All three are morally bankrupt.

Trade any cattle futures lately, Hillary? Whitewater, Rezko, and a Bank in Illinois. Oh yea, I pay attention. Obama and the Clinton's have a lot of mutual friends.

So now, Arizona's law goes from Judge Bolton to the Ninth Circuit. A Federal Judge upholding Federal intentions. How novel. Bolton was probably afraid of Obama canning her like he did that Inspector General dude. You remember that guy? The one who caught Obama's friend, Mayor Johnson, stealing grant dollars?

That the ninth circuit is the most liberal court in the land is not news. I fully expect them to dilute Arizona's law even further. And if they don't, the Supremes laden with the likes of Sotomayor will shit can it. Not because it's the will of the people, which it is, but because people like Sotomayor can't get past their own selfish interests. They don't care what the will of the people is. We simply don't matter anymore. They legislate from the bench with opinions.

Arizona's immigration law is DOA. Contempt prior to investigation. All that remains is the formal burial. That will come soon enough. Not just for Arizona's statute, but for the ideals of a nation that still believe that this is a government for the people, by the people. It' not and it hasn't been for a long time. They will prove this once again.

It's Just Worthless Paper

The Plunge Protection Team. A secret society of elite bankers/investors who come in and buy stocks to keep the stock market propped up.

Complete bullshit. Maybe. Here's a link.

http://www.thenewamerican.com/index.php/economy/commentary-mainmenu-43/2715-stock-rally-due-to-ppt-conspiracy

I'd like to believe this urban myth. But I can't. For two reasons, both of which make sense.

There is simply no place to put your money- anywhere and make anything close to a decent return. Thus the stock market has become the default investment vehicle. The businesses and people still working are doing quite well in a zero interest rate business and lending environment and they gotta park their dough somewhere. It's not that the stock market is such a great and choice vehicle for saving- it's just that everything and everywhere else sucks so bad, the market just sucks a little less.

The other reason. Good old fashioned greed. People do not waste money buying stocks with their own money if they think they are going to be essentially worthless.

Now the good news. We have to believe in the stock market fairy tale and the PPT whether we want to or not.

People may in fact spend someone else's money. Isn't that what fund managers, including hedge fund managers do? What about the Fed? Whose money do they spend?

Oh that's right. We can't audit them. Never mind. So in fact, the Fed could spend money on the market without anyone knowing, keep the market propped up, while they work out an exit strategy of their own.

In Holland 500 years ago, they had a tulip bulb craze that drove the price of tulips through the stratosphere. That is, until someone figured out that tulips were actually non essential and you really don't need them to live.

Stock certificates only have value because the buyer believes he will be able to sell them to someone else for more money. That's true until everyone figures out that stock certificates are just worthless paper. Non essential. Unfortunately, we have an entire nations retirement plans absolutely hinged to the stock market through 401k plans. Including mine.

Here's a toast to Santa Claus. May you actually exist in the form of the PPT. At least another 30 years or so.

Wir Focked, But Hey I Did Ok! *Waves Nobel Statue

Too funny not to post. Forgive the theft.

Obama Calls for National Dialogue on Changing the Subject

Washington, D.C.--President Obama called for a "national dialogue" on changing the subject today, saying all Americans would benefit from an honest and frank conversation about something -- anything -- other than the dismal state of the economy, unemployment, and the competence of his administration.

"This is a great and diverse nation," Obama told viewers in a televised address, "and there are so many things that should be contributing to our great national debate that have nothing to do with how our nation is governed, like the new trailer for the movie Tron: Legacy, that robot on YouTube that can flip pancakes, and the guy who robbed a bank in a Darth Vader costume."

Administration officials also pointed to "that new 55 percent alcohol-by-volume beer that comes inside an actual taxidermied squirrel koozie" as something "all concerned Americans should discuss with their neighbors and families."

We Can't Afford a Recovery

The U.S. has 109 trillion in unfunded liabilities.

That is 13.2 trillion in current debt+medicare+prescription costs+social security liabilities.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

The 13.2 trillion grows by about 500 billion per year at the cheap interest rates we are paying. Half of that 13.2 trillion is refinanced every year.

So what happens in a recovery?

Demand for goods and services increases as people have more money to spend. The Fed hikes interest rates to slow growth and inflation. And although more people are working and paying taxes- the interest rate hikes on that 13.2 trillion will more than offset any increase in tax receipts.

So there you have it. We have screwed the pooch.

Our only escape is to declare bankruptcy and eliminate the Federal Reserve. At the blog entitled the "Economic Collapse" they describe this in detail. The reason we have to have this economic collapse is evident. There is no stopping it. The greed of international bankers, as well as that of our domestic bankers, is without peer. That and a voracious government which simply can't stop eating itself. Headed by a buffoon that plays golf each week and runs around firing people that try to point out that he and his administration are buffoons.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/

Printing our own currency and issuing it interest free is do- able. In fact it already exists. It is called gold. So the bottom line is this. Any recovery will hasten the collapse. I think this administration knows that. Obama is caught in a lose lose situation. Did he inherit this mess? Yes of course. Has he done anything to stem the losses? No, in fact he has added to them. It would take great personal courage to dismantle the Fed and eliminate bankers and a banking system- which contribute mightily to these idiots in Washington.

Make no mistake about this. Lincoln may have inherited a civil war state but he had the courage to act on it. Obama inherited a mess every bit as bad as the civil war. Economic collapse. That he has done nothing and added to it- shows us what kind of leader he is. With any luck, Obama will exit and perhaps someone with a spine will realize we have to act NOW to have any kind of a chance.

Let's pray we don't have a recovery. This shit is going to get really bad if we do.