Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Econ 101 in 2010

Tomorrow two fascinating dog and pony shows will take place.

The first will be Treasury Secretary Geithner defending the 100% bailout of big
banking interests by funneling 170 billion thru AIG. Of course Geithner, et. al., could
have negotiated a 75 or 50% payment on behalf of taxpayers. But you see, it's simple.
They don't give a shit about you. What's better yet, they are never held accountable. They
simply leave office with you holding a giant tax bill that spans decades. They know that.

Just listening to Geithner pisses me off. I don't know what it is about that guy. Maybe he doesn't have the full blown BS lingo polish of Obama or Bernanke down yet. Which leads me to...

The second dog and pony show which will occur when President Transparency gives his state of the union address. We will undoubtedly hear more bluster and bullshit, vague plans about this or that, littered with his hope message. Just once I'd like to hear Obama tell the truth. "I don't have a fucking clue what I am doing." That would be sweet. Give us a baseline.

Ok, so Geithner, like his crooked predecessor, Hank Paulson will survive. So will Obama and his pet dog, Bernanke. Doing tricks for his boss. So what does that mean for you? What does 2010 hold in store?

Zero real growth. Interest rates that must rise. And that ain't the best environment for stocks. I still think gold is over bought at these levels only because I am starting to see signs of deflation even after Bernanke littered the countryside with manufactured dollars. If China puts the brakes on their overheated and inflationary environment, things will grind to a halt. I see fuel and commodity prices dropping. But most importantly, I have noticed the rise of the dollar. A sneaky rise.

Yes, after months and years of getting its ass kicked, I think the dollar is about to rise from the dead. Deflation. Get long the dollar in the short term and I think you can safely short everything else. Really. Get ready for round deux of the grand recession. All the pieces have been carefully put in place and are being manipulating by an administration that can't balance its own checkbook. A leaderless group.

I don't know about you, but I can't wait to hear tomorrows speech. It's oh-so-predictable.

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