Monday, May 4, 2015

73 Months of Economic Bullshit- I Got You Babe Edition

Every day, since the March lows of '09, I feel trapped in some alternative "Groundhog Day" universe where Cher serenades me each morning with "I Got You Babe."



This is how it goes. I snap on CNBC to check the stock market indices. They are always up. If markets, heaven forbid, fall a little bit- parties unknown rescue them and drive them back up. Indeed, markets haven't doubled since '09, they have tripled.

Have we entered a new gilded age? An industrial renaissance?

Day after day, week after week, month after month, I hear that song. Going on 73 months in a row. I wake up, snap on the television and watch the gum flapping, never ending, equity cheerleaders on CNBC.

The latest installment came this morning.

The BLS reported an increase of 223,000 jobs for the month of April. The market reaction went straight up- 250 DJIA points.

What nobody (MSM) mentioned was the further downward revision to March jobs- another minus 41,000. The jobs added in April were all part time jobs, nearly all were in the 55 years and over segment. In fact, all other age segments declined- as well as full time jobs. When you shred 20,000 full time jobs and parse them into 40,000 part time and benefit-less jobs...VOILA!...the new economy! http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/bingo-bls-pads-employment-report-with-birthdeath-plug-spx-melts-up/

or this, http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-08/old-workers-hit-new-all-time-high-all-april-jobs-go-55-and-older

or my very best proof that the BLS numbers are complete bullshit is that 93 million working age adults are not employed. A whopping 93.1 million or about 30% of Americans don't have a job! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-08/americans-not-labor-force-rise-record-93194000

The problem of course with all that bullshit flying around is- the lack of corroboration. The fundamentals, things like tax receipts, housing and new loans, consumer loans, inflation or rising lumber prices- none of those things are happening because....

The political narrative is complete and utter bullshit. This economy, stripped of the trillions added by quantitative (QE) easing, treasury buying, and the years of Zero Interest Rates (ZIRP) can't get going. All that excess fluidity flowed straight into the stock market looking for returns. Working stiffs, the middle class, have been getting sodomized first by bankers who created the housing bubble and destroyed home owner equity, then by politicians sticking Obamacare up our tail pipes.

Obamacare is a tax. It is not health insurance. I lost an additional 400 bucks this year (my "shared responsibility" penalty) because I simply refuse to spend 8 thousand dollars a year for nothing. (500 a mo., and a 2k deductible) Between Obamacare, my federal, state, and local taxes- I would lose 16 thousand or 40% of my income!

I worked 7 hours this week. I worked 12 hours last week. Thank gawd for my retirement. My office created 3 "jobs" after getting rid of one full time worker with benefits. Jobs like mine. My company kept all of the benefit costs- and created 3 jobs to replace the fired full time guy. That is a very small but accurate representative picture of the new American workplace.

Our way of life is not coming back either. Structurally we're screwed. There is simply no way of bringing back those millions of jobs that our politicians allowed corporate America to offshore. This is as good as it gets.

I think all of this economic bullshit can go on for awhile longer too. I keep reading and hearing from people that think this charade will end soon- the latest call is for sometime during the fall of this year. I think a lot of that is wishful thinking and historically based- in part anyway- on the last year of a Presidents's term.

That broken record keeps playing but I'm still not getting used to the tune.









3 comments:

Paul Chambers said...

IT GETS WORSE! this number doesn't include the vast number of retirees, the huge block of government "workers" or the massive numbers of "non-jobs" where there is no actual production. In short, there are a lot of desperate, dependent losers who don’t take kindly to anyone asking them to pull their own weight.

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PeterE said...

Brian,

You write:
"I think all of this economic bullshit can go on for awhile longer too"

From my point of view, I almost agree... I see it like this;

The current situation, I believe, is crazy and untenable, however I can't see an end to it - it is for me not just a while longer. I believe it can continue indefinitely, although I don'understand how. I don't understand how this situation is able to continue, but it has so far, and nobody is rioting on the streets because of it.

I also don't understand how it can end. Therein lies my biggest reason for not being able to see an end.

I think that so long as the masses don't catch on to the bullshit, the bull can keep shitting.

Yes, later this year is earmarked for action, possibly, but so was 2013. Nothing happened, nothing will happen - and I fear it wont happen in your lifetime or in mine, and I'm in my 30s.

The $ we save will be squandered away, and the gold we have will be worth something for our children or grandchildren, not for us, I don't think.

Just think about how massive the current lie is, and then come to terms with the fact that it's such a big lie that nobody understands it. When you come to accept that the wool can so easily be pulled over the collective eyes, then it's easier to accept that this can go on for a lot longer.

Now all you have to do is hope I'm wrong.

I do.

Pete

Brian said...

Excellent comment Peter.

Facts forced me to change my mind. Japan is completely broke- but all of their debt is owned by the Japanese. Greece is completely bankrupt as well- but all of their debt is owned externally.

At 18.2 trillion- we have more debt than the world can buy. Because of that, I thought we would go bankrupt along with the Greeks. Not true. The FED simply buys its own debt- thus allowing the game to go on seemingly forever. I think only 3 or 4 trillion is owned by other countries.

I've also had to accept the reality that ZIRP is deflationary rather than inflationary.

I am enamored with the intelligence of the bankers who have found a way to kick debt down the road and force someone else to deal with it. It's a thing of beauty.

Brian