I wrote this on Saturday.
As this year comes to a close, I note that a lot of very intelligent people once again, seem to have been very wrong about the economy. Billionaire Eric Sprott's call for December 2100.00 gold seems to be the most outrageously stupid call- but he can be forgiven since he owns silver and gold funds and he is hopelessly jaded by his own desires to get people invested in his funds.
Perennial bears like Marc Faber and Peter Schiff were wrong again this year. Shorting any stock index in 2014 was a recipe for disaster. The "housing bubble" did not collapse. Nor has the stock or bond bubble.
My favorite all time wrong call award this year- goes to Texas oil billionaire T. Boone Pickens. Pickens on a CNBC interview a year or two ago was questioned about whether we would ever see a sub 2.00 gas price again. T. Boone Pickens said rather emphatically- that we never would.
Even Meredith Baxter and her appearance on 60 Minutes- have been proven wrong. A few municipalities have gone bankrupt- but her call for bond Armageddon in the municipal bond market has largely never materialized. In places like Detroit- it hardly took a rocket scientist to know they would default.
What do all of these people have in common- besides giant egos? Their judgment seems to be colored by their desires. Some like Schiff have had some success and apparently think moving forward that they have some valuable insight.
There comes a moment when eventually- you must confront the facts. The facts thus far have proven all of those people wrong. People with expensive degrees and valuable credentials. The only guy who appears to have gotten it right thus far- is Ben Bernanke and his minions.
So far, Ben has been right. Maybe we can print our way out of the mess that greedy bankers and politicians created in the years prior to 2008. And maybe, we just won't have to face the consequences. Indeed, they've had to manipulate the entire investing landscape. They've had to destroy alternative investments like gold and silver. They've destroyed any kind of savings return on CD's, savings accounts, and bonds.
Even as I speak, there is a guy on CNBC right now- saying that 2015 will be the year that this fraudulent market finally gets revealed. I have heard that very same speech in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014.
Our debt, well in excess of 18 trillion with another 100 trillion coming due and payable, doesn't seem to matter. Inflation doesn't matter. Oil and other commodities have retreated all year.
This is what I know for sure. Let me describe it with an excellent metaphor.
If my most bitter enemy woke up every day and hopefully said, "This is the day that the lunatic writer at Frankenstein Government will perish. I am sure of it." Clearly that person would be wrong every day for years. Those would be the facts. However, one day that bitter enemy of mine will be on the mark. My life is finite and one day- my enemy will finally be proven right- if he doesn't die first.
Do you want to be wrong a few thousand times just so that you can be right once?
That's the dilemma. I am still on the side of history and the Austrians. The death of the US dollar will come just as surely as the death of every unbacked fiat currency does. The problem for all of us is trying to predict when that will happen. The best and most wise advice at this point- is to just keep your mouth shut and quietly take out a little insurance and hope to hell that the dollar doesn't implode while we are still living. I know it's going to happen- what I fear the most is- What will the US landscape look like after it does?
If you just keep your mouth shut- nobody will think you are a nutter like Schiff, Baxter, or Pickens.
For now, I am going to give Ben Bernanke his due. I am in awe that they have been able to pull this off and continue to do so. In the meantime, I just might take out a little more insurance in 2015 and pass it on to my loved ones if that day doesn't happen while I am still living on the top side. One day, alive or dead, I'll be right. Someone down the line will thank me.