Tuesday, September 25, 2012

"They Pretend to Pay Us and We Pretend to Work"

In addition to running a wildly successful family blog, I've decided to wade back into equity markets with some of the other captives and hostages.

I was once a wildly successful trader. Not in the sense that I actually made any money mind you, I was just a wildly successful trader. I could make more trades in one day than most people do all year. And then I would have to list them, one by one, pages and pages of them on a 1040 for the I.R.S. I didn't do that because I had capital gains. I did that because you can deduct losses, only 3 grand a year, which in my case means- I am rock solid in the capital loss department until the day I die or the end of mankind, which ever comes first.

I haven't wanted to wade back into the market for a couple of reasons- mostly QE3 ad infinitum and this zombie banking sector that makes up it's own accounting rules. If that weren't bad enough, we've got the elections, the whole Mayan thing going on, and the polar shift. The end of mankind. I'm talking less than 90 days away.

And people are driving around, yakking on their phones, acting like they could care less.

I've been away a little more than 5 years. Now the truth of the matter is, I made money in the markets over the years. Not enough to buy a house or anything like that, but I made a little on the long side. I made a hella lot more on the short side. I am the quintessential market timer- meaning I love to short markets but I am always 18 months early. As of today, I am back in. That means 546 days from now, or Mar. 25, 2014 the U.S. market is going to hell in a handbasket.

In the meantime, I will be long mining stocks, commodities, and ready to short everything else. I just can't buy into this FED charade on the long side although thats what the FED is trying to get us all to do.

The problem is that in an inflationary environment- with all that make believe money laying around in bankers vaults- prices rise as inflation cometh. That doesn't exactly bode well for a short sider like me, at least not until the cataclysm happens. In the end, when the cataclysm happens just how will they settle?With Zimbabwe currency? Marbles or baseball cards?  Here is an excellent piece on just such an event. http://seekingalpha.com/article/867361-there-s-no-longer-a-bernanke-put

When you look ahead at the next cataclysm you begin to see what will have value. Hard assets. The things people need in order to live. That will not include worthless currency or stock certificates.

As the Federal Gov't and other layers of government seize your work product via taxes while the Federal Reserve simultaneously inflates the value of your remaining work product away by counterfeiting your currency, the public will become de-incentivized to work. This is happening now. That is why food stamp usage is exploding. That is why permanent disability claims (not to mention the Obama administration greasing the process) have been skyrocketing. That is why unemployment is lasting years. People will take free money rather than work at shitty jobs for less money. Desperate people will do what they have to do to survive- including using their time in a way that is beneficial to them.

It's not that people can't find jobs- it's that people will refuse to work jobs that do not pay enough to cover expenses. There is enough welfare available for many people to survive without working a meaningless job. For many it costs more for the car, insurance, gas, and child care to get to work- than the job delivers.

These shitty jobs that pretend to pay people are going to cause people to pretend to work. At some point, all of that pretending will turn real. If my own personal history is any indication- all of this pretending will become abundantly clear about 546 days from now.


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Remember to keep stacking SLV & GLD your long term insurance.