In 2010, it was green shoots. In 2011, it was recovery. Last month in 2012, it was recovery. Three years of media spin. I believe that this economic spin is initiated at the White House level and repeated by the media ad nauseum in a desperate attempt to keep the worst President ever- in office. (it is a traveling trophy which Bush currently possesses)
We could use a miracle or two.
I love days like today. Once in awhile, the truth in the form of unmanipulated economic numbers, leaks out. That has been quite obvious in the commodities. Oil has been leading the sell off. Gold and silver holding up today. I am beginning to think my prediction a couple months ago of 80 buck a barrel oil was too conservative. Retailers in Boise are still gouging the shit out of us. (Avg price 370.0)
Japan knows the economic end game. They had a giant economic boom brought about by easy credit, a commercial real estate market that went so bad shit crazy that at one point- Tokyo real estate was selling for one million dollars a square inch.
Then there was the bitter credit contraction and implosion in 1989 and the stock market collapse. There has been no recovery in Japan for a quarter of a century. Japan has the world's highest debt levels which they simply- cannot nor will they ever pay down.
I wonder if each year in Japan- the media or politicians call for green shoots or recovery. I wonder if they've been doing that for 24 years. Maybe.
Now that we are firmly entrenched in year 4 of our own- turning Japanese experience- I saw today's numbers. The purchasing managers number was a huge miss and closing in on contraction, GDP was revised down again which was hardly newsworthy, and unemployment numbers were revised up as usual. I expect tomorrow's numbers to be just as ugly.
Hewlett Packard unloading 30k employees. Unemployment benefits cut short. Obamacare looms.
Bankers, not politicians, run this place. That should have been extremely obvious to anyone by now. How long can bankers hang on? I have quit underestimating them.
The answer is a long time. The first step in recovery occurs when our "leadership" re-installs the rule of law and protects the inventors, the entrepreneurs, and the players once again. The second step in recovery occurs when the FED is abolished or at the very least, the bankers are broken up permanently. The third step occurs when American jobs are brought back home, corporations start paying taxes again, and the government focuses on eliminating our debt through a combination of reduced spending coupled with excess revenues used to pay down debt principal.
Until then the malaise continues.